**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 76.6% reflects the short remaining window to the end of 2026 and persistent structural barriers to new signings.** Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed prospective participant, continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reiterated amid regional developments through mid-2026. Syria signaled openness in 2025 but later declined to proceed, while Lebanon faces internal obstacles tied to Hezbollah. Other candidates such as Oman, Qatar, or Indonesia encounter domestic political constraints and regional sensitivities that have not eased sufficiently for rapid movement. U.S. diplomatic pushes in 2025–2026, including post-Iran conflict calls for broader participation, have not yet produced formal announcements or bilateral agreements. Kazakhstan formalized accession earlier in 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but these fall outside the forward-looking resolution period. With no verified new commitments or breakthrough negotiations reported in recent months, market pricing aligns with historical patterns where major Arab-state expansions have required extended diplomatic sequencing beyond the current tight timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
23% 概率
$272,665 交易量
$272,665 交易量
2026-12-31
是
23% 概率
$272,665 交易量
$272,665 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 76.6% reflects the short remaining window to the end of 2026 and persistent structural barriers to new signings.**
Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed prospective participant, continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reiterated amid regional developments through mid-2026. Syria signaled openness in 2025 but later declined to proceed, while Lebanon faces internal obstacles tied to Hezbollah. Other candidates such as Oman, Qatar, or Indonesia encounter domestic political constraints and regional sensitivities that have not eased sufficiently for rapid movement.
U.S. diplomatic pushes in 2025–2026, including post-Iran conflict calls for broader participation, have not yet produced formal announcements or bilateral agreements. Kazakhstan formalized accession earlier in 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but these fall outside the forward-looking resolution period. With no verified new commitments or breakthrough negotiations reported in recent months, market pricing aligns with historical patterns where major Arab-state expansions have required extended diplomatic sequencing beyond the current tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$272,665结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 76.6% reflects the short remaining window to the end of 2026 and persistent structural barriers to new signings.**
Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed prospective participant, continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reiterated amid regional developments through mid-2026. Syria signaled openness in 2025 but later declined to proceed, while Lebanon faces internal obstacles tied to Hezbollah. Other candidates such as Oman, Qatar, or Indonesia encounter domestic political constraints and regional sensitivities that have not eased sufficiently for rapid movement.
U.S. diplomatic pushes in 2025–2026, including post-Iran conflict calls for broader participation, have not yet produced formal announcements or bilateral agreements. Kazakhstan formalized accession earlier in 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but these fall outside the forward-looking resolution period. With no verified new commitments or breakthrough negotiations reported in recent months, market pricing aligns with historical patterns where major Arab-state expansions have required extended diplomatic sequencing beyond the current tight timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$272,665结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus favoring "No" at 76.6% reflects the short remaining window to the end of 2026 and persistent structural barriers to new signings.** Saudi Arabia, the most frequently discussed prospective participant, continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward a Palestinian state, a position reiterated amid regional developments through mid-2026. Syria signaled openness in 2025 but later declined to proceed, while Lebanon faces internal obstacles tied to Hezbollah. Other candidates such as Oman, Qatar, or Indonesia encounter domestic political constraints and regional sensitivities that have not eased sufficiently for rapid movement. U.S. diplomatic pushes in 2025–2026, including post-Iran conflict calls for broader participation, have not yet produced formal announcements or bilateral agreements. Kazakhstan formalized accession earlier in 2026 and Somaliland pledged in late 2025, but these fall outside the forward-looking resolution period. With no verified new commitments or breakthrough negotiations reported in recent months, market pricing aligns with historical patterns where major Arab-state expansions have required extended diplomatic sequencing beyond the current tight timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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