**Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled normalization momentum amid persistent regional barriers.** Saudi Arabia, the most prominent potential signatory, continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a requirement unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to accession. Ongoing post-ceasefire dynamics from the Israel-Hamas conflict, coupled with recent Iran-related hostilities, have hardened public and official positions across Arab states against rapid diplomatic shifts. Speculative discussions involving Lebanon (post-Hezbollah disarmament) or Syria remain preliminary without concrete timelines or commitments. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, and subsequent 2026 visits and bilateral ties have not produced additional members. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no scheduled breakthroughs on core sticking points, the market consensus aligns with historical patterns of slow, precondition-heavy progress in Arab-Israeli diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$305,932 交易量
$305,932 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$305,932 交易量
$305,932 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled normalization momentum amid persistent regional barriers.**
Saudi Arabia, the most prominent potential signatory, continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a requirement unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to accession. Ongoing post-ceasefire dynamics from the Israel-Hamas conflict, coupled with recent Iran-related hostilities, have hardened public and official positions across Arab states against rapid diplomatic shifts. Speculative discussions involving Lebanon (post-Hezbollah disarmament) or Syria remain preliminary without concrete timelines or commitments. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, and subsequent 2026 visits and bilateral ties have not produced additional members. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no scheduled breakthroughs on core sticking points, the market consensus aligns with historical patterns of slow, precondition-heavy progress in Arab-Israeli diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$305,932结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled normalization momentum amid persistent regional barriers.**
Saudi Arabia, the most prominent potential signatory, continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a requirement unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to accession. Ongoing post-ceasefire dynamics from the Israel-Hamas conflict, coupled with recent Iran-related hostilities, have hardened public and official positions across Arab states against rapid diplomatic shifts. Speculative discussions involving Lebanon (post-Hezbollah disarmament) or Syria remain preliminary without concrete timelines or commitments. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, and subsequent 2026 visits and bilateral ties have not produced additional members. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no scheduled breakthroughs on core sticking points, the market consensus aligns with historical patterns of slow, precondition-heavy progress in Arab-Israeli diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$305,932结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET**Traders assign a 92.8% probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027, reflecting stalled normalization momentum amid persistent regional barriers.** Saudi Arabia, the most prominent potential signatory, continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, a requirement unchanged despite U.S. pressure linking a civilian nuclear deal to accession. Ongoing post-ceasefire dynamics from the Israel-Hamas conflict, coupled with recent Iran-related hostilities, have hardened public and official positions across Arab states against rapid diplomatic shifts. Speculative discussions involving Lebanon (post-Hezbollah disarmament) or Syria remain preliminary without concrete timelines or commitments. Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession marked the last expansion, and subsequent 2026 visits and bilateral ties have not produced additional members. With fewer than four months remaining in 2026 and no scheduled breakthroughs on core sticking points, the market consensus aligns with historical patterns of slow, precondition-heavy progress in Arab-Israeli diplomacy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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