Market icon

哈马斯是否同意在……之前解除武装?

Market icon

哈马斯是否同意在……之前解除武装?

$1,574,774 交易量

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,574,774 交易量

Polymarket

2026年3月31日

$240,968 交易量

3%

2026年6月30日

$6,578 交易量

23%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.

Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.

Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
交易量
$1,574,774
结束日期
Jun 30, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 29, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify. For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip. Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process. Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered. Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"哈马斯是否同意在……之前解除武装?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年6月30日",概率为 23%,其次是"2026年3月31日",概率为 3%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 23¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 23%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"哈马斯是否同意在……之前解除武装?"已产生 $1.6 million 的总交易量(自Jul 30, 2025市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"哈马斯是否同意在……之前解除武装?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"哈马斯是否同意在……之前解除武装?"的当前领先者是"2026年6月30日",概率为 23%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 23%。紧随其后的结果是"2026年3月31日",概率为 3%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"哈马斯是否同意在……之前解除武装?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。