**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka, a small village southeast of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, for over 1,500 days without establishing full control.** As of mid-September 2026, open-source maps and Ukrainian military reports indicate ongoing localized fighting with Russian infiltrations by small infantry groups, often using motorcycles or ATVs, but no confirmed territorial gains or consolidation inside the settlement. Ukrainian units, primarily the 118th Mechanized Brigade, have repelled these probes through drone strikes, artillery, and direct fire, while Russian guided bombs (KABs) have heavily damaged the village without displacing defenders. Recent ISW assessments through early September note no verified Russian advances in the immediate Orikhiv sector, with Russian milblogger claims frequently unconfirmed or exaggerated. Broader Russian operations in western Zaporizhzhia remain slow and incremental, focused on incremental pressure rather than decisive breakthroughs. Ukrainian counteractions, including strikes on nearby Russian logistics and command nodes, continue to constrain offensive momentum. The market reflects trader consensus on these battlefield dynamics: sustained Ukrainian defensive success against attritional Russian tactics makes near-term capture unlikely absent a major shift in force allocation or Ukrainian withdrawals elsewhere. Seasonal factors, such as reduced foliage in autumn, could influence visibility and small-unit operations, but no specific near-term events are poised to alter the local balance. Resolution would hinge on verified geolocated evidence of Russian administrative or military control over the village.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$409,306 交易量
2026-09-30
September 30
7%
12月31日
64%
$409,306 交易量
September 30
$301,910 交易量
7%
12月31日
$29,312 交易量
64%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka, a small village southeast of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, for over 1,500 days without establishing full control.** As of mid-September 2026, open-source maps and Ukrainian military reports indicate ongoing localized fighting with Russian infiltrations by small infantry groups, often using motorcycles or ATVs, but no confirmed territorial gains or consolidation inside the settlement. Ukrainian units, primarily the 118th Mechanized Brigade, have repelled these probes through drone strikes, artillery, and direct fire, while Russian guided bombs (KABs) have heavily damaged the village without displacing defenders.
Recent ISW assessments through early September note no verified Russian advances in the immediate Orikhiv sector, with Russian milblogger claims frequently unconfirmed or exaggerated. Broader Russian operations in western Zaporizhzhia remain slow and incremental, focused on incremental pressure rather than decisive breakthroughs. Ukrainian counteractions, including strikes on nearby Russian logistics and command nodes, continue to constrain offensive momentum.
The market reflects trader consensus on these battlefield dynamics: sustained Ukrainian defensive success against attritional Russian tactics makes near-term capture unlikely absent a major shift in force allocation or Ukrainian withdrawals elsewhere. Seasonal factors, such as reduced foliage in autumn, could influence visibility and small-unit operations, but no specific near-term events are poised to alter the local balance. Resolution would hinge on verified geolocated evidence of Russian administrative or military control over the village.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
市场开放时间： May 21, 2026, 1:36 PM ET
交易量
$409,306结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:36 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka, a small village southeast of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, for over 1,500 days without establishing full control.** As of mid-September 2026, open-source maps and Ukrainian military reports indicate ongoing localized fighting with Russian infiltrations by small infantry groups, often using motorcycles or ATVs, but no confirmed territorial gains or consolidation inside the settlement. Ukrainian units, primarily the 118th Mechanized Brigade, have repelled these probes through drone strikes, artillery, and direct fire, while Russian guided bombs (KABs) have heavily damaged the village without displacing defenders.
Recent ISW assessments through early September note no verified Russian advances in the immediate Orikhiv sector, with Russian milblogger claims frequently unconfirmed or exaggerated. Broader Russian operations in western Zaporizhzhia remain slow and incremental, focused on incremental pressure rather than decisive breakthroughs. Ukrainian counteractions, including strikes on nearby Russian logistics and command nodes, continue to constrain offensive momentum.
The market reflects trader consensus on these battlefield dynamics: sustained Ukrainian defensive success against attritional Russian tactics makes near-term capture unlikely absent a major shift in force allocation or Ukrainian withdrawals elsewhere. Seasonal factors, such as reduced foliage in autumn, could influence visibility and small-unit operations, but no specific near-term events are poised to alter the local balance. Resolution would hinge on verified geolocated evidence of Russian administrative or military control over the village.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.540813° N, 35.885706° E in Mala Tokmachka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka1.png
Intersection Location in Mala Tokmachka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka2.png
Mala Tokmachka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Mala+Tokmachka3.png
Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/qFjruKqP6iK2M6NM8
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
交易量
$409,306结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 21, 2026, 1:36 PM ET**Russian forces have conducted repeated but unsuccessful assaults on Mala Tokmachka, a small village southeast of Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, for over 1,500 days without establishing full control.** As of mid-September 2026, open-source maps and Ukrainian military reports indicate ongoing localized fighting with Russian infiltrations by small infantry groups, often using motorcycles or ATVs, but no confirmed territorial gains or consolidation inside the settlement. Ukrainian units, primarily the 118th Mechanized Brigade, have repelled these probes through drone strikes, artillery, and direct fire, while Russian guided bombs (KABs) have heavily damaged the village without displacing defenders. Recent ISW assessments through early September note no verified Russian advances in the immediate Orikhiv sector, with Russian milblogger claims frequently unconfirmed or exaggerated. Broader Russian operations in western Zaporizhzhia remain slow and incremental, focused on incremental pressure rather than decisive breakthroughs. Ukrainian counteractions, including strikes on nearby Russian logistics and command nodes, continue to constrain offensive momentum. The market reflects trader consensus on these battlefield dynamics: sustained Ukrainian defensive success against attritional Russian tactics makes near-term capture unlikely absent a major shift in force allocation or Ukrainian withdrawals elsewhere. Seasonal factors, such as reduced foliage in autumn, could influence visibility and small-unit operations, but no specific near-term events are poised to alter the local balance. Resolution would hinge on verified geolocated evidence of Russian administrative or military control over the village.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题