Tesla’s Fremont production line, repurposed from Model S/X assembly, began low-volume Optimus Gen 3 output in late summer 2026 for internal “Optimus Academy” training and data collection, with supply-chain reports confirming component orders for roughly 5,000 units by early September. This progress, backed by Musk’s repeated emphasis on an initially slow ramp due to the robot’s ~10,000 unique parts and new supply chain, underpins trader expectations for meaningful internal deployments by year-end while external commercial sales remain targeted for the second half of 2027. A larger Giga Texas facility is slated for volume production in summer 2027 at up to 10 million units annually. Competitive pressure from Figure AI and Agility Robotics deployments, plus ongoing AI capability validation, adds uncertainty around any earlier public release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$123,093 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
4%
$123,093 交易量
12月31日
$26,598 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla’s Fremont production line, repurposed from Model S/X assembly, began low-volume Optimus Gen 3 output in late summer 2026 for internal “Optimus Academy” training and data collection, with supply-chain reports confirming component orders for roughly 5,000 units by early September. This progress, backed by Musk’s repeated emphasis on an initially slow ramp due to the robot’s ~10,000 unique parts and new supply chain, underpins trader expectations for meaningful internal deployments by year-end while external commercial sales remain targeted for the second half of 2027. A larger Giga Texas facility is slated for volume production in summer 2027 at up to 10 million units annually. Competitive pressure from Figure AI and Agility Robotics deployments, plus ongoing AI capability validation, adds uncertainty around any earlier public release.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
市场开放时间： Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$123,093结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET结算来源
..This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla’s Fremont production line, repurposed from Model S/X assembly, began low-volume Optimus Gen 3 output in late summer 2026 for internal “Optimus Academy” training and data collection, with supply-chain reports confirming component orders for roughly 5,000 units by early September. This progress, backed by Musk’s repeated emphasis on an initially slow ramp due to the robot’s ~10,000 unique parts and new supply chain, underpins trader expectations for meaningful internal deployments by year-end while external commercial sales remain targeted for the second half of 2027. A larger Giga Texas facility is slated for volume production in summer 2027 at up to 10 million units annually. Competitive pressure from Figure AI and Agility Robotics deployments, plus ongoing AI capability validation, adds uncertainty around any earlier public release.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
交易量
$123,093结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET结算来源
..Tesla’s Fremont production line, repurposed from Model S/X assembly, began low-volume Optimus Gen 3 output in late summer 2026 for internal “Optimus Academy” training and data collection, with supply-chain reports confirming component orders for roughly 5,000 units by early September. This progress, backed by Musk’s repeated emphasis on an initially slow ramp due to the robot’s ~10,000 unique parts and new supply chain, underpins trader expectations for meaningful internal deployments by year-end while external commercial sales remain targeted for the second half of 2027. A larger Giga Texas facility is slated for volume production in summer 2027 at up to 10 million units annually. Competitive pressure from Figure AI and Agility Robotics deployments, plus ongoing AI capability validation, adds uncertainty around any earlier public release.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题