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美国是否会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击?

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美国是否会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击?

Mar 31

Mar 31

18% chance
Polymarket

$287,032 交易量

18% chance
Polymarket

$287,032 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.

To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.

Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.

Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.

Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$287,032
结束日期
Mar 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities.

To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States.

Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify.

Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify.

Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$287,032
结束日期
Mar 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States conducts a major cyberattack against Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “major cyberattack” is a cyber operation attributable to the United States that causes significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access affecting core Iranian national systems—such as critical infrastructure, state institutions, the financial system (including major state operated banks), defense networks, or nuclear facilities. To qualify, the cyberattack must be either (i) officially acknowledged by the U.S. government (or an authorized U.S. government representative), or (ii) confirmed by a broad consensus of credible reporting attributing the operation to the United States. Smaller-scale incidents—such as attacks on individual companies or organizations that do not target core national systems—will not qualify. Cyber incidents that are thwarted without significant disruption, damage, or unauthorized access will not qualify. Cyber operations that are directly related to, coordinated with, or executed as part of kinetic military action (including, but not limited to, airstrikes, missile/drone strikes, raids, ground incursions, or other physical combat operations) will not qualify, even if they cause significant cyber effects. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"美国是否会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"美国会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击吗?",概率为 18%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 18¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 18%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"美国是否会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击?"已产生 $287K 的总交易量(自Jan 23, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美国是否会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"美国是否会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击?"的当前领先者是"美国会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击吗?",概率为 18%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 18%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"美国是否会在3月31日前对伊朗发动网络攻击?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。