**Diplomatic signals and limited military exchanges continue to shape expectations around U.S.-Iran tensions.** As of late September 2026, President Trump has stated that a settlement is approaching while Iranian officials signaled willingness to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for eased military pressure and port access, with both sides hinting at renewed talks during the UN General Assembly. Recent U.S. airstrikes on IRGC targets in southern Iran responded to shipping incidents but remained confined to air and naval operations rather than ground commitments. Ongoing negotiations over nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and de-confliction mechanisms, alongside the high costs and logistical demands of any broader campaign, underpin trader consensus that a full-scale U.S. invasion remains unlikely before 2027. Scheduled diplomatic contacts and the absence of mobilization for large ground forces reinforce this positioning.