Republican Clay Fuller's victory in the April 7 special runoff election for Georgia's 14th Congressional District, defeating Democrat Shawn Harris by a 57%-43% margin, reinforces trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92% implied probability for the November general election winner. The deep-red district, historically a Republican stronghold with strong incumbent advantages and high partisan lean, saw unexpected Democratic turnout in the low-turnout special—marking a 25-point leftward shift from 2024 presidential results—but Fuller's Trump endorsement and prosecutor background secured the win to serve until January 2027. Ahead of the May 19 primaries, no major polling yet exists, but base rates for GA-14 GOP retention exceed 90% in comparable cycles. Scenarios to upend this include a competitive Republican primary fracturing turnout, Fuller's scandal, or a national Democratic wave boosting Harris or another Democrat in the general.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGA-14 House Election Winner
GA-14 House Election Winner
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
7%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$3,033 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$1,689 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Clay Fuller's victory in the April 7 special runoff election for Georgia's 14th Congressional District, defeating Democrat Shawn Harris by a 57%-43% margin, reinforces trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92% implied probability for the November general election winner. The deep-red district, historically a Republican stronghold with strong incumbent advantages and high partisan lean, saw unexpected Democratic turnout in the low-turnout special—marking a 25-point leftward shift from 2024 presidential results—but Fuller's Trump endorsement and prosecutor background secured the win to serve until January 2027. Ahead of the May 19 primaries, no major polling yet exists, but base rates for GA-14 GOP retention exceed 90% in comparable cycles. Scenarios to upend this include a competitive Republican primary fracturing turnout, Fuller's scandal, or a national Democratic wave boosting Harris or another Democrat in the general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ভলিউম
$4,722শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Clay Fuller's victory in the April 7 special runoff election for Georgia's 14th Congressional District, defeating Democrat Shawn Harris by a 57%-43% margin, reinforces trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92% implied probability for the November general election winner. The deep-red district, historically a Republican stronghold with strong incumbent advantages and high partisan lean, saw unexpected Democratic turnout in the low-turnout special—marking a 25-point leftward shift from 2024 presidential results—but Fuller's Trump endorsement and prosecutor background secured the win to serve until January 2027. Ahead of the May 19 primaries, no major polling yet exists, but base rates for GA-14 GOP retention exceed 90% in comparable cycles. Scenarios to upend this include a competitive Republican primary fracturing turnout, Fuller's scandal, or a national Democratic wave boosting Harris or another Democrat in the general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$4,722শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Clay Fuller's victory in the April 7 special runoff election for Georgia's 14th Congressional District, defeating Democrat Shawn Harris by a 57%-43% margin, reinforces trader consensus favoring the GOP at 92% implied probability for the November general election winner. The deep-red district, historically a Republican stronghold with strong incumbent advantages and high partisan lean, saw unexpected Democratic turnout in the low-turnout special—marking a 25-point leftward shift from 2024 presidential results—but Fuller's Trump endorsement and prosecutor background secured the win to serve until January 2027. Ahead of the May 19 primaries, no major polling yet exists, but base rates for GA-14 GOP retention exceed 90% in comparable cycles. Scenarios to upend this include a competitive Republican primary fracturing turnout, Fuller's scandal, or a national Democratic wave boosting Harris or another Democrat in the general.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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