Recent model consensus from the Met Office, GFS, and ECMWF points to a high of 21–22°C in London on August 22 under building high pressure and northerly flow, which has driven the market's heavy weighting toward those outcomes. Cooler maritime air and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating, keeping values near or slightly below the late-August climatological average of roughly 21°C. Recent shifts from warmer southerly patterns earlier in the month have reinforced trader focus on modest maxima, with low probabilities assigned to 24°C or higher reflecting limited potential for advection or insolation spikes. Updated official forecasts and any last-minute model runs remain key near-term catalysts.