Current short-term forecasts from agencies like NIWA and international models point to a daytime maximum of 9–10°C in Wellington on August 6 under mostly sunny skies with light southerly winds, keeping temperatures below the seasonal average high of around 12°C. This aligns with the market's strong emphasis on 10°C and 11°C outcomes, reflecting recent cooling trends observed in early August readings and stable high-pressure patterns limiting warm northerly advection. Seasonal outlooks indicate near-average temperatures overall for the month with moderate uncertainty from variable wind flows, but the immediate forecast window favors these lower values without significant model divergence. Traders are monitoring any last-minute updates to wind or cloud cover that could nudge the peak slightly higher.