Recent forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS indicate clearing high pressure over northern Italy after thunderstorms on August 20–21, promoting radiational cooling under clear skies and light winds for Milan’s overnight minimum on the 22nd. This setup, typical for the Po Valley in late summer, supports lows in the 17–20 °C range as dew points hover near 18 °C and cloud cover drops below 30 percent. Ensemble spreads create tight clustering around 14–17 °C in market pricing, reflecting small differences in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any residual moisture. Traders weigh these factors against historical August minima near 18 °C, with upcoming 00Z model runs likely to refine the precise threshold.