The Democratic nominee Laura Gillen, the incumbent who flipped NY-04 in 2024, holds a strong position heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the 83% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The June 23 Democratic primary resolved without significant challenge, while the Republican side settled on Jeanine Driscoll as nominee. The South Shore Nassau County district’s recent electoral shift and Gillen’s established local profile contribute to the current implied probability gap, though the seat remains subject to standard midterm dynamics, turnout patterns, and any late-cycle developments in the roughly 11 weeks before ballots close.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
15%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$791 Vol.
83%
Republican Party
$343 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Laura Gillen, the incumbent who flipped NY-04 in 2024, holds a strong position heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the 83% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The June 23 Democratic primary resolved without significant challenge, while the Republican side settled on Jeanine Driscoll as nominee. The South Shore Nassau County district’s recent electoral shift and Gillen’s established local profile contribute to the current implied probability gap, though the seat remains subject to standard midterm dynamics, turnout patterns, and any late-cycle developments in the roughly 11 weeks before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,134শেষ তারিখ
Nov 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic nominee Laura Gillen, the incumbent who flipped NY-04 in 2024, holds a strong position heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the 83% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The June 23 Democratic primary resolved without significant challenge, while the Republican side settled on Jeanine Driscoll as nominee. The South Shore Nassau County district’s recent electoral shift and Gillen’s established local profile contribute to the current implied probability gap, though the seat remains subject to standard midterm dynamics, turnout patterns, and any late-cycle developments in the roughly 11 weeks before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$1,134শেষ তারিখ
Nov 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic nominee Laura Gillen, the incumbent who flipped NY-04 in 2024, holds a strong position heading into the November 3 general election, reflected in the 83% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The June 23 Democratic primary resolved without significant challenge, while the Republican side settled on Jeanine Driscoll as nominee. The South Shore Nassau County district’s recent electoral shift and Gillen’s established local profile contribute to the current implied probability gap, though the seat remains subject to standard midterm dynamics, turnout patterns, and any late-cycle developments in the roughly 11 weeks before ballots close.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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