Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen (D) leads trader consensus at 71.5% to hold New York's 4th Congressional District, a D+2 seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index, bolstered by former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito's April 14 announcement declining a rematch after taking a Trump administration role as Labor Department inspector general. This setback leaves Republicans with a fragmented primary field—including Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, and others with minimal fundraising—ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Gillen boasts over $1.5 million cash-on-hand. Her 2024 narrow win underscores competitiveness, but midterm headwinds for the president's party and lack of a top GOP contender have widened her implied probability against unified Democratic support.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
72%
Republican Party
28%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$56 Vol.
72%
Republican Party
$13 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen (D) leads trader consensus at 71.5% to hold New York's 4th Congressional District, a D+2 seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index, bolstered by former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito's April 14 announcement declining a rematch after taking a Trump administration role as Labor Department inspector general. This setback leaves Republicans with a fragmented primary field—including Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, and others with minimal fundraising—ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Gillen boasts over $1.5 million cash-on-hand. Her 2024 narrow win underscores competitiveness, but midterm headwinds for the president's party and lack of a top GOP contender have widened her implied probability against unified Democratic support.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
ভলিউম
$69শেষ তারিখ
Nov 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen (D) leads trader consensus at 71.5% to hold New York's 4th Congressional District, a D+2 seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index, bolstered by former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito's April 14 announcement declining a rematch after taking a Trump administration role as Labor Department inspector general. This setback leaves Republicans with a fragmented primary field—including Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, and others with minimal fundraising—ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Gillen boasts over $1.5 million cash-on-hand. Her 2024 narrow win underscores competitiveness, but midterm headwinds for the president's party and lack of a top GOP contender have widened her implied probability against unified Democratic support.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$69শেষ তারিখ
Nov 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen (D) leads trader consensus at 71.5% to hold New York's 4th Congressional District, a D+2 seat per Cook Partisan Voting Index, bolstered by former Rep. Anthony D'Esposito's April 14 announcement declining a rematch after taking a Trump administration role as Labor Department inspector general. This setback leaves Republicans with a fragmented primary field—including Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, and others with minimal fundraising—ahead of the June 23 primaries, while Gillen boasts over $1.5 million cash-on-hand. Her 2024 narrow win underscores competitiveness, but midterm headwinds for the president's party and lack of a top GOP contender have widened her implied probability against unified Democratic support.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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