Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability against a US bank failure by April 30, driven by the banking sector's sustained stability following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, which imposed just $19.7 million in costs to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund. No subsequent failures have occurred amid solid Q1 2026 earnings from major banks, bolstered by strong net interest income and investment banking fees, alongside proactive management of commercial real estate (CRE) exposures highlighted in February Federal Reserve stress test scenarios. This reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs low systemic risk perceptions. Realistic challenges include abrupt CRE delinquencies accelerating or a liquidity shock from macroeconomic tightening, with ongoing Q1 earnings releases through late April as key monitors.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$11,876 Vol.
$11,876 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
$11,876 Vol.
$11,876 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability against a US bank failure by April 30, driven by the banking sector's sustained stability following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, which imposed just $19.7 million in costs to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund. No subsequent failures have occurred amid solid Q1 2026 earnings from major banks, bolstered by strong net interest income and investment banking fees, alongside proactive management of commercial real estate (CRE) exposures highlighted in February Federal Reserve stress test scenarios. This reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs low systemic risk perceptions. Realistic challenges include abrupt CRE delinquencies accelerating or a liquidity shock from macroeconomic tightening, with ongoing Q1 earnings releases through late April as key monitors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
ভলিউম
$11,876শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability against a US bank failure by April 30, driven by the banking sector's sustained stability following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, which imposed just $19.7 million in costs to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund. No subsequent failures have occurred amid solid Q1 2026 earnings from major banks, bolstered by strong net interest income and investment banking fees, alongside proactive management of commercial real estate (CRE) exposures highlighted in February Federal Reserve stress test scenarios. This reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs low systemic risk perceptions. Realistic challenges include abrupt CRE delinquencies accelerating or a liquidity shock from macroeconomic tightening, with ongoing Q1 earnings releases through late April as key monitors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
ভলিউম
$11,876শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 93% implied probability against a US bank failure by April 30, driven by the banking sector's sustained stability following the isolated January 30 closure of small Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust, which imposed just $19.7 million in costs to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund. No subsequent failures have occurred amid solid Q1 2026 earnings from major banks, bolstered by strong net interest income and investment banking fees, alongside proactive management of commercial real estate (CRE) exposures highlighted in February Federal Reserve stress test scenarios. This reflects the wisdom of crowds in prediction markets, where real capital backs low systemic risk perceptions. Realistic challenges include abrupt CRE delinquencies accelerating or a liquidity shock from macroeconomic tightening, with ongoing Q1 earnings releases through late April as key monitors.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা