**US-Venezuela relations have shifted markedly since the January 2026 US military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife via targeted strikes and a raid in Caracas.** Acting President Delcy Rodríguez has engaged Washington on economic matters, culminating in an August 2026 agreement granting the US significant stakes and preferential rights in Venezuelan oil fields. Ongoing US-backed talks between the interim government and select opposition figures focus on judicial reform, asset access, and a potential transition, though key opposition voices remain sidelined. US naval and air assets remain positioned in the Caribbean primarily for counternarcotics, with prior boat strikes continuing at lower intensity. These developments frame trader assessments around the likelihood of any expanded ground operation or full-scale invasion by upcoming resolution dates, emphasizing stabilization and resource access over further kinetic escalation.