Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, with 280-299 at 26.3% and 320-339 at 20.8%, reflecting an average of roughly 35-42 posts per day over the eight-day window. This positioning stems from Elon's recent surge—peaking at around 120 posts on April 12 amid viral Tesla Full Self-Driving videos navigating LA and Grok-4.20 topping legal benchmarks on Chatbot Arena—pushing cumulative counts toward 280+ midway through the period, per tracker data and overlapping markets. Escalating AI feuds, including Florida's OpenAI probe and the looming Musk-Altman trial on April 27, plus WhatsApp privacy scandals, have fueled heightened engagement and reply threads. With April 16-17 remaining, traders eye potential last-minute spikes from SpaceX or political posts, though historical patterns suggest steady mid-30s daily volume absent major catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert300–319 36%
280–299 26.1%
320-339 19.7%
260-279 8.5%
$9,028,431 Vol.
$9,028,431 Vol.
17. Apr. 2026
240–259
<1%
260-279
9%
280–299
26%
300–319
36%
320-339
20%
340-359
8%
360-379
3%
380-399
1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500–519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300–319 36%
280–299 26.1%
320-339 19.7%
260-279 8.5%
$9,028,431 Vol.
$9,028,431 Vol.
17. Apr. 2026
240–259
$718,224 Vol.
<1%
260-279
$452,442 Vol.
9%
280–299
$368,278 Vol.
26%
300–319
$304,709 Vol.
36%
320-339
$375,712 Vol.
20%
340-359
$293,857 Vol.
8%
360-379
$287,449 Vol.
3%
380-399
$279,255 Vol.
1%
400-419
$229,680 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$301,514 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$469,564 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$337,809 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$329,730 Vol.
<1%
500–519
$264,187 Vol.
<1%
520-539
$266,458 Vol.
<1%
540-559
$265,358 Vol.
<1%
560-579
$183,725 Vol.
<1%
580+
$348,990 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, with 280-299 at 26.3% and 320-339 at 20.8%, reflecting an average of roughly 35-42 posts per day over the eight-day window. This positioning stems from Elon's recent surge—peaking at around 120 posts on April 12 amid viral Tesla Full Self-Driving videos navigating LA and Grok-4.20 topping legal benchmarks on Chatbot Arena—pushing cumulative counts toward 280+ midway through the period, per tracker data and overlapping markets. Escalating AI feuds, including Florida's OpenAI probe and the looming Musk-Altman trial on April 27, plus WhatsApp privacy scandals, have fueled heightened engagement and reply threads. With April 16-17 remaining, traders eye potential last-minute spikes from SpaceX or political posts, though historical patterns suggest steady mid-30s daily volume absent major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$9,028,431Enddatum
17. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, with 280-299 at 26.3% and 320-339 at 20.8%, reflecting an average of roughly 35-42 posts per day over the eight-day window. This positioning stems from Elon's recent surge—peaking at around 120 posts on April 12 amid viral Tesla Full Self-Driving videos navigating LA and Grok-4.20 topping legal benchmarks on Chatbot Arena—pushing cumulative counts toward 280+ midway through the period, per tracker data and overlapping markets. Escalating AI feuds, including Florida's OpenAI probe and the looming Musk-Altman trial on April 27, plus WhatsApp privacy scandals, have fueled heightened engagement and reply threads. With April 16-17 remaining, traders eye potential last-minute spikes from SpaceX or political posts, though historical patterns suggest steady mid-30s daily volume absent major catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 10 12:00 PM ET to April 17, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$9,028,431Enddatum
17. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 36.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 300-319 times on X from April 10-17, 2026, with 280-299 at 26.3% and 320-339 at 20.8%, reflecting an average of roughly 35-42 posts per day over the eight-day window. This positioning stems from Elon's recent surge—peaking at around 120 posts on April 12 amid viral Tesla Full Self-Driving videos navigating LA and Grok-4.20 topping legal benchmarks on Chatbot Arena—pushing cumulative counts toward 280+ midway through the period, per tracker data and overlapping markets. Escalating AI feuds, including Florida's OpenAI probe and the looming Musk-Altman trial on April 27, plus WhatsApp privacy scandals, have fueled heightened engagement and reply threads. With April 16-17 remaining, traders eye potential last-minute spikes from SpaceX or political posts, though historical patterns suggest steady mid-30s daily volume absent major catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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