Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 16-18 (Thursday-Saturday), reflecting his recent daily average of around 25-30 posts amid a slight dip from the prior week's 43-per-day pace (April 7-14 total: 299). This positioning stems from sustained engagement on viral pop culture flashpoints like South African farm attacks and "genocide of Whites" rhetoric, Grok's benchmark dominance in medicine and reasoning, Starlink's global expansion, and criticism of California's AB 2624 fraud-investigation bill—driving steady but moderated volume without election-style surges. Lower bins like 40-64 (26%) account for potential weekend slowdowns on Saturday, while higher outcomes lag due to no confirmed catalysts like Tesla launches or Trump posts; monitor for late-breaking xAI or political developments that could accelerate activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert65-89 42%
40-64 26%
90-114 19%
115-139 9%
NEU
$51,417 Vol.
NEU
$51,417 Vol.
18. Apr. 2026
<40
4%
40-64
26%
65-89
42%
90-114
19%
115-139
9%
140-164
2%
165–189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 42%
40-64 26%
90-114 19%
115-139 9%
NEU
$51,417 Vol.
NEU
$51,417 Vol.
18. Apr. 2026
<40
$11,303 Vol.
4%
40-64
$4,170 Vol.
26%
65-89
$2,295 Vol.
42%
90-114
$1,998 Vol.
19%
115-139
$3,137 Vol.
9%
140-164
$5,664 Vol.
2%
165–189
$5,045 Vol.
1%
190-214
$7,330 Vol.
1%
215-239
$4,987 Vol.
<1%
240+
$5,509 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 16-18 (Thursday-Saturday), reflecting his recent daily average of around 25-30 posts amid a slight dip from the prior week's 43-per-day pace (April 7-14 total: 299). This positioning stems from sustained engagement on viral pop culture flashpoints like South African farm attacks and "genocide of Whites" rhetoric, Grok's benchmark dominance in medicine and reasoning, Starlink's global expansion, and criticism of California's AB 2624 fraud-investigation bill—driving steady but moderated volume without election-style surges. Lower bins like 40-64 (26%) account for potential weekend slowdowns on Saturday, while higher outcomes lag due to no confirmed catalysts like Tesla launches or Trump posts; monitor for late-breaking xAI or political developments that could accelerate activity.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 13, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volumen
$51,417Enddatum
18. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 13, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 16-18 (Thursday-Saturday), reflecting his recent daily average of around 25-30 posts amid a slight dip from the prior week's 43-per-day pace (April 7-14 total: 299). This positioning stems from sustained engagement on viral pop culture flashpoints like South African farm attacks and "genocide of Whites" rhetoric, Grok's benchmark dominance in medicine and reasoning, Starlink's global expansion, and criticism of California's AB 2624 fraud-investigation bill—driving steady but moderated volume without election-style surges. Lower bins like 40-64 (26%) account for potential weekend slowdowns on Saturday, while higher outcomes lag due to no confirmed catalysts like Tesla launches or Trump posts; monitor for late-breaking xAI or political developments that could accelerate activity.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 16 12:00 PM ET to April 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$51,417Enddatum
18. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 13, 2026, 12:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 41.5% implied probability to Elon Musk posting 65-89 times on X from April 16-18 (Thursday-Saturday), reflecting his recent daily average of around 25-30 posts amid a slight dip from the prior week's 43-per-day pace (April 7-14 total: 299). This positioning stems from sustained engagement on viral pop culture flashpoints like South African farm attacks and "genocide of Whites" rhetoric, Grok's benchmark dominance in medicine and reasoning, Starlink's global expansion, and criticism of California's AB 2624 fraud-investigation bill—driving steady but moderated volume without election-style surges. Lower bins like 40-64 (26%) account for potential weekend slowdowns on Saturday, while higher outcomes lag due to no confirmed catalysts like Tesla launches or Trump posts; monitor for late-breaking xAI or political developments that could accelerate activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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