Polymarket traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs amid resilient labor conditions. These hotter-than-expected inflation and employment prints, alongside March FOMC minutes highlighting risks from geopolitical oil shocks, have tempered easing expectations, relegating a 25 basis point cut to 13.5% odds while keeping hikes below 5%. Brokerage forecasts still eye two 2026 cuts overall, but trader consensus reflects caution; watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts in the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 77%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 14%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 4.0%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung 3.5%
$3,654,750 Vol.
$3,654,750 Vol.
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
3%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
14%
Keine Änderung
77%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
4%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
Keine Änderung 77%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 14%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 4.0%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung 3.5%
$3,654,750 Vol.
$3,654,750 Vol.
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
3%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
14%
Keine Änderung
77%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
4%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign a 76.5% implied probability to no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by March 2026 CPI surging to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4%—and nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs amid resilient labor conditions. These hotter-than-expected inflation and employment prints, alongside March FOMC minutes highlighting risks from geopolitical oil shocks, have tempered easing expectations, relegating a 25 basis point cut to 13.5% odds while keeping hikes below 5%. Brokerage forecasts still eye two 2026 cuts overall, but trader consensus reflects caution; watch the April 28-29 FOMC and May CPI for shifts in the policy path.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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