Strong labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings from energy prices, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 28-29. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, with recent professional forecaster surveys showing upward revisions to 2026 core CPI and PCE projections alongside steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including any updated Summary of Economic Projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh, serves as the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the path. A sharp deterioration in incoming employment data or an unexpected inflation acceleration before late July remains the primary scenarios that could introduce volatility around the current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKeine Änderung 94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.0%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 2.8%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$9,883,231 Vol.
$9,883,231 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Keine Änderung
94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
<1%
Keine Änderung 94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte 3.0%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte 2.8%
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung <1%
$9,883,231 Vol.
$9,883,231 Vol.
29. Juli 2026
Mehr als 50 Basispunkte Senkung
$1,462,167 Vol.
1%
Senkung um 25 Basispunkte
$1,086,875 Vol.
3%
Keine Änderung
$1,642,374 Vol.
94%
Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte
$4,122,335 Vol.
3%
Erhöhung um mehr als 50 Basispunkte
$1,570,264 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings from energy prices, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 28-29. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, with recent professional forecaster surveys showing upward revisions to 2026 core CPI and PCE projections alongside steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including any updated Summary of Economic Projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh, serves as the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the path. A sharp deterioration in incoming employment data or an unexpected inflation acceleration before late July remains the primary scenarios that could introduce volatility around the current pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$9,883,231Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings from energy prices, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 28-29. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, with recent professional forecaster surveys showing upward revisions to 2026 core CPI and PCE projections alongside steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including any updated Summary of Economic Projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh, serves as the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the path. A sharp deterioration in incoming employment data or an unexpected inflation acceleration before late July remains the primary scenarios that could introduce volatility around the current pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$9,883,231Enddatum
29. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong labor market resilience and elevated inflation readings from energy prices, tariffs, and geopolitical factors have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 28-29. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, with recent professional forecaster surveys showing upward revisions to 2026 core CPI and PCE projections alongside steady unemployment near 4.4-4.5%. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting, including any updated Summary of Economic Projections under new Chair Kevin Warsh, serves as the key near-term catalyst that could reinforce or modestly shift the path. A sharp deterioration in incoming employment data or an unexpected inflation acceleration before late July remains the primary scenarios that could introduce volatility around the current pricing.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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