Recent short-range guidance from ECMWF and KNMI ensembles supports daily maxima near 25–26 °C in Amsterdam on August 2, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with combined implied probability exceeding 59 %. Moderate westerly flow and persistent North Sea marine air limit strong diurnal warming, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce 1–2 °C uncertainty that traders price through small probability shifts across adjacent bins. This range sits slightly above early-August climatology of 22–23 °C, reflecting modest high-pressure influence without major heat advection. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings expected within 24 hours will refine the peak and potentially move the 26 °C contract.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Amsterdam am 2. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Amsterdam am 2. August?
26°C 37%
25°C 30%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
NEU
NEU
2. Aug. 2026
21°C oder weniger
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
4%
24°C
9%
25°C
30%
26°C
37%
27°C
17%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C oder höher
1%
26°C 37%
25°C 30%
27°C 17%
24°C 9%
NEU
NEU
2. Aug. 2026
21°C oder weniger
$10 Vol.
1%
22°C
$76 Vol.
1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$40 Vol.
9%
25°C
$0 Vol.
30%
26°C
$32 Vol.
37%
27°C
$0 Vol.
17%
28°C
$5 Vol.
3%
29°C
$20 Vol.
1%
30°C
$33 Vol.
1%
31°C oder höher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range guidance from ECMWF and KNMI ensembles supports daily maxima near 25–26 °C in Amsterdam on August 2, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with combined implied probability exceeding 59 %. Moderate westerly flow and persistent North Sea marine air limit strong diurnal warming, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce 1–2 °C uncertainty that traders price through small probability shifts across adjacent bins. This range sits slightly above early-August climatology of 22–23 °C, reflecting modest high-pressure influence without major heat advection. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings expected within 24 hours will refine the peak and potentially move the 26 °C contract.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volumen
$226Enddatum
2. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range guidance from ECMWF and KNMI ensembles supports daily maxima near 25–26 °C in Amsterdam on August 2, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with combined implied probability exceeding 59 %. Moderate westerly flow and persistent North Sea marine air limit strong diurnal warming, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce 1–2 °C uncertainty that traders price through small probability shifts across adjacent bins. This range sits slightly above early-August climatology of 22–23 °C, reflecting modest high-pressure influence without major heat advection. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings expected within 24 hours will refine the peak and potentially move the 26 °C contract.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$226Enddatum
2. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 1:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range guidance from ECMWF and KNMI ensembles supports daily maxima near 25–26 °C in Amsterdam on August 2, driving the market’s tight clustering at those levels with combined implied probability exceeding 59 %. Moderate westerly flow and persistent North Sea marine air limit strong diurnal warming, while variable cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing introduce 1–2 °C uncertainty that traders price through small probability shifts across adjacent bins. This range sits slightly above early-August climatology of 22–23 °C, reflecting modest high-pressure influence without major heat advection. Updated model runs and KNMI briefings expected within 24 hours will refine the peak and potentially move the 26 °C contract.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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