**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 31. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Hongkong am 31. Juli?
29°C 36%
28°C 35%
30°C 15%
27°C 11%
NEU
$10,206 Vol.
NEU
$10,206 Vol.
31. Juli 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
11%
28°C
35%
29°C
36%
30°C
15%
31°C
3%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
28°C 35%
30°C 15%
27°C 11%
NEU
$10,206 Vol.
NEU
$10,206 Vol.
31. Juli 2026
24°C or below
$411 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$264 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,595 Vol.
1%
27°C
$3,213 Vol.
11%
28°C
$1,059 Vol.
35%
29°C
$1,136 Vol.
36%
30°C
$1,112 Vol.
15%
31°C
$411 Vol.
3%
32°C
$384 Vol.
3%
33°C
$385 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$236 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$10,206Enddatum
31. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$10,206Enddatum
31. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 29, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory and global ensembles points to a modest cooling influence from increased cloud cover and scattered showers expected around July 31, keeping daytime maxima near or slightly below the July climatological average of ~31–32 °C.** Persistent moisture from the summer monsoon trough and possible residual effects from earlier tropical systems limit surface heating and reduce the diurnal temperature range, favoring outcomes clustered around 28–30 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 29 °C because numerical guidance shows the greatest consistency in that narrow band, while single-degree resolution remains sensitive to small shifts in timing of convection or wind direction. With the market tightly bunched between 28 °C and 30 °C, uncertainty centers on whether skies clear enough for brief solar heating spikes or whether rain arrives early enough to cap the peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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