**Forecast models and current synoptic conditions point to a daily maximum temperature in Busan on August 24, 2026, most likely in the 33–36 °C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest trading on 34 °C and 35 °C.** Persistent influence from the North Pacific high is directing warm, humid southwesterly flow over the region, promoting strong daytime insolation under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Recent observations show surface temperatures already reaching 31–34 °C on August 22 with dew points in the mid-20s, and ensemble guidance from global models (GFS, ECMWF) indicates modest further warming or stabilization rather than a sharp cooldown ahead of the 24th. Light winds and limited cloud cover are expected to allow efficient surface heating, while the coastal setting moderates extremes compared with inland sites. The implied probabilities reflect trader assessment of model consensus around mid-30s °C, tempered by typical forecast uncertainty of 1–2 °C at this lead time and the possibility of slightly stronger onshore flow or brief marine layer effects. Historical August maxima for Busan average near 29–31 °C, but the current +2 °C anomaly and lack of significant precipitation support the elevated outlook. Updated KMA and international model runs over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary near-term drivers of any shifts in these odds.