Recent model runs show mixed signals for Cape Town’s maximum temperature on September 24, with guidance clustered between roughly 21–26 °C and limited consensus on whether a warmer Atlantic ridge or cooler onshore flow will dominate. This spread underpins the market’s dispersed probabilities, where 27 °C+ holds the largest share at 34.5 % because some ensembles still allow brief warm advection before any front arrives, while 24 °C, 25 °C, and 26 °C each sit near 19 % as the most frequently simulated outcomes. Lower bins (23 °C and below) receive smaller weight given the current spring baseline and recent daytime maxima near 27–29 °C. Key variables include evolving 500 hPa heights, the strength of the south-easterly gradient, and boundary-layer moisture from the Benguela Current; updated runs from the South African Weather Service and global ensembles over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution criteria around the daily maximum recorded at official stations.