Current NOAA and NWS model consensus points to a cooler-than-normal air mass over Chicago on August 24, favoring highs in the mid-70s amid northwest winds and potential lake-effect moderation. This drives the near-even split between the 76-77°F (39.5%) and 78-79°F (31.0%) bins, with lower probabilities for warmer or cooler ranges reflecting model spread on cloud cover, wind shifts, and exact timing of any diurnal heating. Historical August normals near 82°F highlight the atypical pattern, while traders weigh the final official reading—likely from O'Hare—against any last-minute forecast adjustments before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 24. August?
76-77°F 45%
78-79°F 34%
74-75°F 11%
80-81°F 6%
69°F oder weniger
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
45%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
1%
30–31°C
1%
88°F oder höher
<1%
76-77°F 45%
78-79°F 34%
74-75°F 11%
80-81°F 6%
69°F oder weniger
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
4%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
45%
78-79°F
34%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
1%
30–31°C
1%
88°F oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current NOAA and NWS model consensus points to a cooler-than-normal air mass over Chicago on August 24, favoring highs in the mid-70s amid northwest winds and potential lake-effect moderation. This drives the near-even split between the 76-77°F (39.5%) and 78-79°F (31.0%) bins, with lower probabilities for warmer or cooler ranges reflecting model spread on cloud cover, wind shifts, and exact timing of any diurnal heating. Historical August normals near 82°F highlight the atypical pattern, while traders weigh the final official reading—likely from O'Hare—against any last-minute forecast adjustments before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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