Latest ensemble forecasts from operational models position Istanbul's August 27 maximum near 28–30°C under persistent high pressure and light winds, aligning with late-summer climatology of 27–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, plus potential afternoon sea breezes, often caps peaks below 30°C despite subsidence warming, supporting the market's strong consensus on 27°C and 28°C outcomes. Model spread remains the key uncertainty factor, with any strengthening of warm advection or reduced humidity potentially elevating 29°C probabilities ahead of resolution. Updated short-range runs and NHC-style regional guidance will drive further shifts in trader sentiment before the 27th.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 27. August?
27°C 49%
28°C 32%
26°C 13%
29°C 12%
23°C or below
5%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
13%
27°C
49%
28°C
32%
29°C
12%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 49%
28°C 32%
26°C 13%
29°C 12%
23°C or below
5%
24°C
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
13%
27°C
49%
28°C
32%
29°C
12%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 25, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from operational models position Istanbul's August 27 maximum near 28–30°C under persistent high pressure and light winds, aligning with late-summer climatology of 27–29°C. Marine moderation from the Bosphorus and Black Sea, plus potential afternoon sea breezes, often caps peaks below 30°C despite subsidence warming, supporting the market's strong consensus on 27°C and 28°C outcomes. Model spread remains the key uncertainty factor, with any strengthening of warm advection or reduced humidity potentially elevating 29°C probabilities ahead of resolution. Updated short-range runs and NHC-style regional guidance will drive further shifts in trader sentiment before the 27th.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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