The tightly clustered probabilities for Madrid's September 22 high temperature, centered on 31–35°C, stem from modest spread among short-range forecast models for an approaching ridge of high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows subtle variations in daytime maximums driven by differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and southeasterly flow that could enhance or suppress urban heat retention. Late-September climatology places the typical maximum near 26°C, so current projections indicate a positive anomaly of several degrees; however, small shifts in timing or moisture advection could easily move the peak across the 32–34°C range. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 22. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 22. September?
34°C 58%
33°C 28%
35°C 19%
32°C 7%
NEU
NEU
22. Sep. 2026
28°C oder darunter
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
6%
32°C
7%
33°C
28%
34°C
54%
35°C
19%
36°C
2%
37°C
2%
38°C oder höher
2%
34°C 58%
33°C 28%
35°C 19%
32°C 7%
NEU
NEU
22. Sep. 2026
28°C oder darunter
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
6%
32°C
$17 Vol.
7%
33°C
$5 Vol.
28%
34°C
$118 Vol.
54%
35°C
$0 Vol.
19%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$0 Vol.
2%
38°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tightly clustered probabilities for Madrid's September 22 high temperature, centered on 31–35°C, stem from modest spread among short-range forecast models for an approaching ridge of high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows subtle variations in daytime maximums driven by differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and southeasterly flow that could enhance or suppress urban heat retention. Late-September climatology places the typical maximum near 26°C, so current projections indicate a positive anomaly of several degrees; however, small shifts in timing or moisture advection could easily move the peak across the 32–34°C range. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$141Enddatum
22. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tightly clustered probabilities for Madrid's September 22 high temperature, centered on 31–35°C, stem from modest spread among short-range forecast models for an approaching ridge of high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows subtle variations in daytime maximums driven by differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and southeasterly flow that could enhance or suppress urban heat retention. Late-September climatology places the typical maximum near 26°C, so current projections indicate a positive anomaly of several degrees; however, small shifts in timing or moisture advection could easily move the peak across the 32–34°C range. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$141Enddatum
22. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The tightly clustered probabilities for Madrid's September 22 high temperature, centered on 31–35°C, stem from modest spread among short-range forecast models for an approaching ridge of high pressure. Ensemble guidance shows subtle variations in daytime maximums driven by differences in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and southeasterly flow that could enhance or suppress urban heat retention. Late-September climatology places the typical maximum near 26°C, so current projections indicate a positive anomaly of several degrees; however, small shifts in timing or moisture advection could easily move the peak across the 32–34°C range. Updated model runs and observational data from the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these outcomes ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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