Traders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Paris am 26. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Paris am 26. September?
25°C 35%
26°C 34%
24°C 32%
23°C 30%
NEU
NEU
26. Sep. 2026
20°C oder weniger
4%
21°C
4%
22°C
21%
23°C
30%
24°C
32%
25°C
35%
26°C
34%
27°C
27%
28°C
17%
29°C
9%
30°C oder höher
2%
25°C 35%
26°C 34%
24°C 32%
23°C 30%
NEU
NEU
26. Sep. 2026
20°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
4%
21°C
$0 Vol.
4%
22°C
$0 Vol.
21%
23°C
$0 Vol.
30%
24°C
$0 Vol.
32%
25°C
$0 Vol.
35%
26°C
$0 Vol.
34%
27°C
$0 Vol.
27%
28°C
$0 Vol.
17%
29°C
$0 Vol.
9%
30°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
26. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
26. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 24, 2026, 12:55 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47de9d...Traders assign roughly equal 20% implied probabilities across 22–29°C for Paris's highest temperature on September 26 because short-range ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and Météo-France currently show a broad spread in maximum readings. Late-September synoptic patterns over northern France—driven by variable Atlantic ridging versus approaching troughs—create typical day-to-day uncertainty of several degrees, with no strong consensus yet on whether a warmer southerly flow or cooler northerly advection will dominate. Historical September maxima in Paris average near 20–22°C but exhibit high interannual variability. Fresh model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen