**Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has experienced heightened internal factional tensions, including hardliner accusations of a coup plot by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei.** Early 2026 reports described a failed internal effort involving former officials like Hassan Rouhani to sideline the supreme leader. Ongoing protests suppressed in early 2026, combined with IRGC influence in the post-Khamenei transition and disputes over a U.S. truce, have fueled trader focus on elite power struggles. These verified developments—leadership decapitation, factional warnings in July, and external regime-change pressure—shape assessments of coup probability more than historical precedents like 1953. Upcoming diplomatic or succession milestones could further influence outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,115,813 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
31. Dezember
11%
$2,115,813 Vol.
31. Dezember
$74,587 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has experienced heightened internal factional tensions, including hardliner accusations of a coup plot by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei.** Early 2026 reports described a failed internal effort involving former officials like Hassan Rouhani to sideline the supreme leader. Ongoing protests suppressed in early 2026, combined with IRGC influence in the post-Khamenei transition and disputes over a U.S. truce, have fueled trader focus on elite power struggles. These verified developments—leadership decapitation, factional warnings in July, and external regime-change pressure—shape assessments of coup probability more than historical precedents like 1953. Upcoming diplomatic or succession milestones could further influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,115,813Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has experienced heightened internal factional tensions, including hardliner accusations of a coup plot by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei.** Early 2026 reports described a failed internal effort involving former officials like Hassan Rouhani to sideline the supreme leader. Ongoing protests suppressed in early 2026, combined with IRGC influence in the post-Khamenei transition and disputes over a U.S. truce, have fueled trader focus on elite power struggles. These verified developments—leadership decapitation, factional warnings in July, and external regime-change pressure—shape assessments of coup probability more than historical precedents like 1953. Upcoming diplomatic or succession milestones could further influence outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,115,813Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign and the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has experienced heightened internal factional tensions, including hardliner accusations of a coup plot by figures such as President Pezeshkian and Speaker Ghalibaf against Mojtaba Khamenei.** Early 2026 reports described a failed internal effort involving former officials like Hassan Rouhani to sideline the supreme leader. Ongoing protests suppressed in early 2026, combined with IRGC influence in the post-Khamenei transition and disputes over a U.S. truce, have fueled trader focus on elite power struggles. These verified developments—leadership decapitation, factional warnings in July, and external regime-change pressure—shape assessments of coup probability more than historical precedents like 1953. Upcoming diplomatic or succession milestones could further influence outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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