**Trader consensus on the Polymarket market for Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei's X posts from August 14–21, 2026, heavily favors fewer than five posts (73.0% for <5), with the next bin (5–9) at 22.5% and all higher ranges below 1%.** This distribution reflects the Supreme Leader's established pattern of infrequent direct posting on his primary official accounts, such as @Rahbarenghelab_, which typically issues announcements tied to specific events like senior military and security appointments. Recent activity in early August 2026 included a cluster of posts on August 9–10 detailing appointments to the Supreme National Security Council and armed forces leadership, but output has remained sparse outside such targeted releases. Ongoing institutional transitions, including leadership changes in security structures, have not produced sustained daily posting, while archival or secondary accounts like @khamenei_ir continue to share older statements at low volume. With the resolution window still open and no major scheduled diplomatic or domestic events forcing higher output, the market pricing aligns with historical base rates of limited weekly activity from the office.