Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) measurements confirm a minimum air temperature of 24°C on May 2, 2026—the lowest recorded at the Observatory that day—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome, as markets await final resolution based on official data. This aligns precisely with HKO's May 1 forecast under mainly cloudy conditions with isolated showers, typical for early May when subtropical high pressure ridges maintain warm overnight lows averaging 24–26°C historically. Model consensus from multi-ensemble forecasts showed no significant cooling signals. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from instrument audits or quality control, though HKO's rigorous protocols make this improbable; traders eye no further updates as the record stands firm.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 2?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$25,844 Vol.
$25,844 Vol.
2. Mai 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$25,844 Vol.
$25,844 Vol.
2. Mai 2026
18°C or below
$961 Vol.
No
19°C
$548 Vol.
No
20°C
$567 Vol.
No
21°C
$939 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,740 Vol.
No
23°C
$4,542 Vol.
No
24°C
$5,417 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$5,075 Vol.
No
26°C
$604 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,292 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$2,159 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) measurements confirm a minimum air temperature of 24°C on May 2, 2026—the lowest recorded at the Observatory that day—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome, as markets await final resolution based on official data. This aligns precisely with HKO's May 1 forecast under mainly cloudy conditions with isolated showers, typical for early May when subtropical high pressure ridges maintain warm overnight lows averaging 24–26°C historically. Model consensus from multi-ensemble forecasts showed no significant cooling signals. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from instrument audits or quality control, though HKO's rigorous protocols make this improbable; traders eye no further updates as the record stands firm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volumen
$25,844Enddatum
2. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) measurements confirm a minimum air temperature of 24°C on May 2, 2026—the lowest recorded at the Observatory that day—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome, as markets await final resolution based on official data. This aligns precisely with HKO's May 1 forecast under mainly cloudy conditions with isolated showers, typical for early May when subtropical high pressure ridges maintain warm overnight lows averaging 24–26°C historically. Model consensus from multi-ensemble forecasts showed no significant cooling signals. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from instrument audits or quality control, though HKO's rigorous protocols make this improbable; traders eye no further updates as the record stands firm.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 2 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$25,844Enddatum
2. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) measurements confirm a minimum air temperature of 24°C on May 2, 2026—the lowest recorded at the Observatory that day—driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for this outcome, as markets await final resolution based on official data. This aligns precisely with HKO's May 1 forecast under mainly cloudy conditions with isolated showers, typical for early May when subtropical high pressure ridges maintain warm overnight lows averaging 24–26°C historically. Model consensus from multi-ensemble forecasts showed no significant cooling signals. Realistic challenges would require rare data revisions from instrument audits or quality control, though HKO's rigorous protocols make this improbable; traders eye no further updates as the record stands firm.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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