Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a shift toward more settled high-pressure conditions across southern England by August 7, following the early-August heatwave, with daytime maxima near 24–25 °C and nighttime radiative cooling under partly clear skies likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around the long-term August average of 13 °C. Forecast spread in boundary-layer moisture, wind speeds, and residual cloud cover from Atlantic fronts creates the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities on 13–15 °C outcomes, as small differences in overnight dew-point depression or urban heat-island effects can shift the recorded low by 1–2 °C. Official minimum-temperature criteria (typically the lowest 1-minute average at standard observing sites) remain sensitive to the exact timing of any weak trough, keeping 12 °C and 16 °C probabilities non-negligible until the final 48-hour guidance update.