Short-term ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS currently favor daily maxima in Munich of 33–34°C on August 5, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Warm advection under a ridge supports peak heating, yet light showers or increased cloud cover noted in recent runs could trim afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C through reduced insolation. Model spread arises mainly from timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official agencies such as the German Weather Service emphasizing uncertainty in exact maximum readings near the 33–35°C threshold. Historical August baselines near 23–25°C provide context that this event sits well above average, but traders weigh the latest high-resolution guidance showing only modest day-to-day changes ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in München am 5. August?
Höchste Temperatur in München am 5. August?
33°C 37%
34°C 30%
32°C 18%
35°C 16%
NEU
NEU
5. Aug. 2026
30°C or below
6%
31°C
9%
32°C
18%
33°C
37%
34°C
30%
35°C
16%
36°C
2%
37°C
3%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
34°C 30%
32°C 18%
35°C 16%
NEU
NEU
5. Aug. 2026
30°C or below
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C
$0 Vol.
9%
32°C
$17 Vol.
18%
33°C
$12 Vol.
37%
34°C
$6 Vol.
30%
35°C
$0 Vol.
16%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$17 Vol.
3%
38°C
$10 Vol.
1%
39°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS currently favor daily maxima in Munich of 33–34°C on August 5, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Warm advection under a ridge supports peak heating, yet light showers or increased cloud cover noted in recent runs could trim afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C through reduced insolation. Model spread arises mainly from timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official agencies such as the German Weather Service emphasizing uncertainty in exact maximum readings near the 33–35°C threshold. Historical August baselines near 23–25°C provide context that this event sits well above average, but traders weigh the latest high-resolution guidance showing only modest day-to-day changes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$92Enddatum
5. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS currently favor daily maxima in Munich of 33–34°C on August 5, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Warm advection under a ridge supports peak heating, yet light showers or increased cloud cover noted in recent runs could trim afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C through reduced insolation. Model spread arises mainly from timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official agencies such as the German Weather Service emphasizing uncertainty in exact maximum readings near the 33–35°C threshold. Historical August baselines near 23–25°C provide context that this event sits well above average, but traders weigh the latest high-resolution guidance showing only modest day-to-day changes ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$92Enddatum
5. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term ensemble forecasts from models like ECMWF and GFS currently favor daily maxima in Munich of 33–34°C on August 5, 2026, driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those outcomes. Warm advection under a ridge supports peak heating, yet light showers or increased cloud cover noted in recent runs could trim afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C through reduced insolation. Model spread arises mainly from timing of any frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, with official agencies such as the German Weather Service emphasizing uncertainty in exact maximum readings near the 33–35°C threshold. Historical August baselines near 23–25°C provide context that this event sits well above average, but traders weigh the latest high-resolution guidance showing only modest day-to-day changes ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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