Recent model consensus from sources like the Met Office and ECMWF points to a heatwave easing around July 12, with daytime highs near 27–29°C giving way to overnight radiative cooling that could produce minimums of 14–18°C at London stations. Variable cloud cover and light winds are the key differentiators, as clearer skies promote stronger surface cooling while increased humidity or breeze limits the drop. Historical July lows average near 14°C, but current warm advection keeps extremes below 13°C or above 20°C improbable. Traders see tight clustering around 16–18°C because ensemble spreads remain wide this close to the event, with fresh model runs and observational updates likely to resolve the range before resolution.