Recent National Weather Service and NOAA short-range model guidance points to a stable high-pressure pattern over the Northeast, with light winds and minimal cloud cover supporting an overnight low in the mid-70s for New York City on August 2. Ensemble consensus from the GFS and ECMWF keeps temperatures above typical late-summer baselines near 72 °F while limiting cooling from radiational effects in the urban heat island. This data drives the 49 % market-implied probability on 74–75 °F as the leading outcome, with the secondary 76–77 °F bin reflecting slight upward model spread. Updated runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine dew-point and boundary-layer forecasts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in NYC am 2. August?
74-75°F 43%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 22%
78-79°F 13%
63°F oder darunter
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
43%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
1%
82°F oder höher
1%
74-75°F 43%
72-73°F 24%
76-77°F 22%
78-79°F 13%
63°F oder darunter
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
1%
68-69°F
1%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
24%
74-75°F
43%
76-77°F
22%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
1%
82°F oder höher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 31, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and NOAA short-range model guidance points to a stable high-pressure pattern over the Northeast, with light winds and minimal cloud cover supporting an overnight low in the mid-70s for New York City on August 2. Ensemble consensus from the GFS and ECMWF keeps temperatures above typical late-summer baselines near 72 °F while limiting cooling from radiational effects in the urban heat island. This data drives the 49 % market-implied probability on 74–75 °F as the leading outcome, with the secondary 76–77 °F bin reflecting slight upward model spread. Updated runs tonight and tomorrow morning will refine dew-point and boundary-layer forecasts ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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