Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 25. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Warschau am 25. August?
6°C or below 95%
16°C or higher 92%
7°C 40%
10°C 27%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
6°C or below
95%
7°C
40%
8°C
21%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
26%
12°C
26%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
92%
6°C or below 95%
16°C or higher 92%
7°C 40%
10°C 27%
NEU
NEU
25. Aug. 2026
6°C or below
$5 Vol.
95%
7°C
$5 Vol.
40%
8°C
$0 Vol.
21%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
26%
12°C
$0 Vol.
26%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$5 Vol.
2%
16°C or higher
$5 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$20Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$20Enddatum
25. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles points to overnight lows of 11–14°C in Warsaw on August 25 under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and moderate humidity that limits strong radiational cooling. This range aligns with the market's tightly matched probabilities around 10–14°C outcomes while explaining why extremes at 6°C or below and 16°C or higher each command near-50% implied odds: small shifts in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, or model bias in minimum temperature could tip the exact low either way. With resolution two days away, the next 00Z and 12Z model runs plus any updated surface observations will provide the clearest signals for traders assessing whether conditions favor the lower or higher side of the current spread.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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