Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers Heather Shelton and Scott Vera, while Democrats including Jeanette Cass and others compete in their primary. The district's partisan voting index of R+21 and Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating underscore structural barriers for Democrats. Factors supporting the frontrunner position include Alford's established name recognition from prior local media experience and the district's consistent electoral history. Late developments such as a primary surprise or broader national shifts could narrow margins, though historical patterns in similar seats limit realistic challenges before the November general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMO-04 Wahlsieger
MO-04 Wahlsieger
$31,204 Vol.
$31,204 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
93%
Demokratische Partei
7%
$31,204 Vol.
$31,204 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$17,284 Vol.
93%
Demokratische Partei
$13,920 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers Heather Shelton and Scott Vera, while Democrats including Jeanette Cass and others compete in their primary. The district's partisan voting index of R+21 and Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating underscore structural barriers for Democrats. Factors supporting the frontrunner position include Alford's established name recognition from prior local media experience and the district's consistent electoral history. Late developments such as a primary surprise or broader national shifts could narrow margins, though historical patterns in similar seats limit realistic challenges before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$31,204Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers Heather Shelton and Scott Vera, while Democrats including Jeanette Cass and others compete in their primary. The district's partisan voting index of R+21 and Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating underscore structural barriers for Democrats. Factors supporting the frontrunner position include Alford's established name recognition from prior local media experience and the district's consistent electoral history. Late developments such as a primary surprise or broader national shifts could narrow margins, though historical patterns in similar seats limit realistic challenges before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$31,204Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a solid Republican advantage in the 2026 House race, reflected in the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Mark Alford, first elected in 2022, faces a Republican primary on August 4 against challengers Heather Shelton and Scott Vera, while Democrats including Jeanette Cass and others compete in their primary. The district's partisan voting index of R+21 and Cook Political Report's Solid Republican rating underscore structural barriers for Democrats. Factors supporting the frontrunner position include Alford's established name recognition from prior local media experience and the district's consistent electoral history. Late developments such as a primary surprise or broader national shifts could narrow margins, though historical patterns in similar seats limit realistic challenges before the November general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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