With new CAQ Premier Christine Fréchette sworn in on April 15, 2026, and her cabinet formed April 21 following François Legault's January resignation, the party gained in the latest Léger poll (April 20), rising to 17% and eroding PLQ support to 28%. Yet trader consensus prices PQ at 57% implied probability of most seats, driven by seat projections favoring a PQ majority (64 seats per 338Canada/Qc125 models) due to its 31% vote share concentrated in Quebec City CMA (29%) and rest of Quebec (36%), leveraging first-past-the-post dynamics. PLQ (34%) dominates Montreal but trails in competitive ridings, while CAQ (9.5%) lacks projected seats despite the "Fréchette effect." Election by October 5.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGewinner der Parlamentswahlen in Quebec
Gewinner der Parlamentswahlen in Quebec
PQ 57%
PLQ 34%
CAQ 10%
PCQ <1%
$453,889 Vol.
$453,889 Vol.

PQ
57%

PLQ
34%

CAQ
10%

PCQ
<1%

PVQ
<1%

QS
<1%
PQ 57%
PLQ 34%
CAQ 10%
PCQ <1%
$453,889 Vol.
$453,889 Vol.

PQ
57%

PLQ
34%

CAQ
10%

PCQ
<1%

PVQ
<1%

QS
<1%
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With new CAQ Premier Christine Fréchette sworn in on April 15, 2026, and her cabinet formed April 21 following François Legault's January resignation, the party gained in the latest Léger poll (April 20), rising to 17% and eroding PLQ support to 28%. Yet trader consensus prices PQ at 57% implied probability of most seats, driven by seat projections favoring a PQ majority (64 seats per 338Canada/Qc125 models) due to its 31% vote share concentrated in Quebec City CMA (29%) and rest of Quebec (36%), leveraging first-past-the-post dynamics. PLQ (34%) dominates Montreal but trails in competitive ridings, while CAQ (9.5%) lacks projected seats despite the "Fréchette effect." Election by October 5.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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