Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its mandate amid the 2026 war with Israel and Hezbollah, creating deep uncertainty over timing and voter conditions. This delay, approved in March amid airstrikes, widespread displacement, and security breakdowns, has fragmented the field and prevented any party from consolidating early momentum. Amal Movement holds a modest edge in trader assessments due to its entrenched Shia alliance with Hezbollah, Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, and relative organizational stability compared with Christian-led opposition groups and independents. Factors that could consolidate support include shifts in the conflict, diaspora voting rules, or post-ceasefire realignments among reformist blocs and traditional factions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon
Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 3.2%
Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) <1%
National Dialogue Party (NDP) <1%
Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA) <1%
$662,632 Vol.
$662,632 Vol.
Amal-Bewegung (Amal)
3%
Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)
<1%
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
<1%
Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA)
<1%
Freie Patriotische Bewegung (FPM)
<1%
Taqaddom-Partei
<1%
Lana – Sozialdemokratische Partei (Lana)
<1%
Watani-Bündnis (Watani)
<1%
Hisbollah (Hezb)
<1%
Kataeb-Partei (Kataeb)
<1%
Marada-Bewegung (MM)
<1%
Islamische Gruppe (IG)
<1%
Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Progressive Sozialistische Partei (PSP)
<1%
Unabhängigkeitsbewegung (IM)
<1%
National Liberal Party (NLP)
<1%
Mada-Partei (Mada)
<1%
Würdebewegung (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armenische Revolutionäre Föderation (ARF)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
Volksnasseristische Organisation (PNO)
<1%
Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 3.2%
Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) <1%
National Dialogue Party (NDP) <1%
Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA) <1%
$662,632 Vol.
$662,632 Vol.
Amal-Bewegung (Amal)
3%
Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)
<1%
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
<1%
Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA)
<1%
Freie Patriotische Bewegung (FPM)
<1%
Taqaddom-Partei
<1%
Lana – Sozialdemokratische Partei (Lana)
<1%
Watani-Bündnis (Watani)
<1%
Hisbollah (Hezb)
<1%
Kataeb-Partei (Kataeb)
<1%
Marada-Bewegung (MM)
<1%
Islamische Gruppe (IG)
<1%
Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath)
<1%
Khatt Ahmar
<1%
Progressive Sozialistische Partei (PSP)
<1%
Unabhängigkeitsbewegung (IM)
<1%
National Liberal Party (NLP)
<1%
Mada-Partei (Mada)
<1%
Würdebewegung (DM)
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
Armenische Revolutionäre Föderation (ARF)
<1%
Union Party (UP)
<1%
Volksnasseristische Organisation (PNO)
<1%
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its mandate amid the 2026 war with Israel and Hezbollah, creating deep uncertainty over timing and voter conditions. This delay, approved in March amid airstrikes, widespread displacement, and security breakdowns, has fragmented the field and prevented any party from consolidating early momentum. Amal Movement holds a modest edge in trader assessments due to its entrenched Shia alliance with Hezbollah, Speaker Nabih Berri's institutional role, and relative organizational stability compared with Christian-led opposition groups and independents. Factors that could consolidate support include shifts in the conflict, diaspora voting rules, or post-ceasefire realignments among reformist blocs and traditional factions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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