Skip to main content
icon for Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon
Wahlen·Mittlerer Osten

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon

icon for Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon
Wahlen·Mittlerer Osten

Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon

Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 3.1%

Hisbollah (Hezb) <1%

Mada-Partei (Mada) <1%

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) <1%

Polymarket

$658,722 Vol.

Amal-Bewegung (Amal) 3.1%

Hisbollah (Hezb) <1%

Mada-Partei (Mada) <1%

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF) <1%

Polymarket

$658,722 Vol.

Amal-Bewegung (Amal)

$63,600 Vol.

3%

Hisbollah (Hezb)

$52,099 Vol.

<1%

Mada-Partei (Mada)

$27,915 Vol.

<1%

Libanesische Streitkräfte (LF)

$164,958 Vol.

<1%

Freie Patriotische Bewegung (FPM)

$79,112 Vol.

<1%

Taqaddom-Partei

$11,177 Vol.

<1%

Kataeb-Partei (Kataeb)

$7,342 Vol.

<1%

National Dialogue Party (NDP)

$45,762 Vol.

<1%

Islamische Wohltätigkeitsvereinigung (ICPA)

$8,075 Vol.

<1%

Volksnasseristische Organisation (PNO)

$9,058 Vol.

<1%

Lana – Sozialdemokratische Partei (Lana)

$13,761 Vol.

<1%

Watani-Bündnis (Watani)

$7,539 Vol.

<1%

Marada-Bewegung (MM)

$8,683 Vol.

<1%

Islamische Gruppe (IG)

$8,631 Vol.

<1%

Arabische Sozialistische Baath-Partei im Libanon (Baath)

$10,710 Vol.

<1%

Khatt Ahmar

$9,477 Vol.

<1%

Progressive Sozialistische Partei (PSP)

$55,015 Vol.

<1%

Unabhängigkeitsbewegung (IM)

$8,894 Vol.

<1%

National Liberal Party (NLP)

$9,599 Vol.

<1%

Würdebewegung (DM)

$29,195 Vol.

<1%

ReLebanon

$9,808 Vol.

<1%

Armenische Revolutionäre Föderation (ARF)

$10,552 Vol.

<1%

Union Party (UP)

$7,759 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its mandate amid the renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict and resulting instability. This timing explains the diffuse market pricing, with no party exceeding low single-digit implied probabilities amid a highly fragmented field. Key differentiators include traditional March 8 Alliance blocs anchored by Amal Movement and Hezbollah, which retain strong Shia constituencies and institutional influence through figures like Speaker Nabih Berri, versus opposition groups such as Lebanese Forces and independents seeking to capitalize on reformist sentiment and diaspora turnout. Consolidation behind any contender would likely require a durable ceasefire, unified opposition coalitions, or major shifts in voter registration and electoral rules before the new date.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$658,722
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary elections, originally set for May 2026, were postponed until 2028 after parliament extended its mandate amid the renewed Israel-Hezbollah conflict and resulting instability. This timing explains the diffuse market pricing, with no party exceeding low single-digit implied probabilities amid a highly fragmented field. Key differentiators include traditional March 8 Alliance blocs anchored by Amal Movement and Hezbollah, which retain strong Shia constituencies and institutional influence through figures like Speaker Nabih Berri, versus opposition groups such as Lebanese Forces and independents seeking to capitalize on reformist sentiment and diaspora turnout. Consolidation behind any contender would likely require a durable ceasefire, unified opposition coalitions, or major shifts in voter registration and electoral rules before the new date.

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.

If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).

Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volumen
$658,722
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb). Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Verwandte

icon for Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Will PAM win the next Moroccan legislative elections?

41%
icon for Wird Einiges Russland (ER) die meisten Sitze bei der nächsten russischen Parlamentswahl gewinnen?

Wird Einiges Russland (ER) die meisten Sitze bei der nächsten russischen Parlamentswahl gewinnen?

97%
Ja
icon for Will PAM get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

Will PAM get the second-most number of seats in the next Moroccan legislative elections?

45%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 23 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Amal-Bewegung (Amal)" mit 3%, gefolgt von „Hisbollah (Hezb)" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 3¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 3% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $658.7K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 6, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 23 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Dies ist ein offener Markt. Der aktuelle Spitzenreiter für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" ist „Amal-Bewegung (Amal)" mit nur 3%, dicht gefolgt von „Hisbollah (Hezb)" mit 0%. Da kein Ergebnis eine starke Mehrheit hat, sehen Händler dies als hochgradig unsicher an, was einzigartige Handelsmöglichkeiten bieten kann. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert – speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der Parlamentswahl im Libanon" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.