Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican Derek Merrin in the November 3, 2026, general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting Kaptur’s long incumbency since 1983, her narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, and sustained local support in the Toledo area. The Republican nominee secured the May 2026 primary after a mid-decade redistricting process that shifted the district’s partisan balance toward the GOP. Recent campaign activity by Kaptur and the absence of major new polling shifts or candidate developments have kept trader consensus tilted toward the Democratic outcome while leaving room for movement based on fall turnout patterns and any late-cycle national dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOH-09 Wahlsieger
OH-09 Wahlsieger
$25,263 Vol.
$25,263 Vol.
4. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
65%
Republikanische Partei
36%
$25,263 Vol.
$25,263 Vol.
4. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$2,146 Vol.
65%
Republikanische Partei
$23,118 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican Derek Merrin in the November 3, 2026, general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting Kaptur’s long incumbency since 1983, her narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, and sustained local support in the Toledo area. The Republican nominee secured the May 2026 primary after a mid-decade redistricting process that shifted the district’s partisan balance toward the GOP. Recent campaign activity by Kaptur and the absence of major new polling shifts or candidate developments have kept trader consensus tilted toward the Democratic outcome while leaving room for movement based on fall turnout patterns and any late-cycle national dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$25,263Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican Derek Merrin in the November 3, 2026, general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting Kaptur’s long incumbency since 1983, her narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, and sustained local support in the Toledo area. The Republican nominee secured the May 2026 primary after a mid-decade redistricting process that shifted the district’s partisan balance toward the GOP. Recent campaign activity by Kaptur and the absence of major new polling shifts or candidate developments have kept trader consensus tilted toward the Democratic outcome while leaving room for movement based on fall turnout patterns and any late-cycle national dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$25,263Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marcy Kaptur faces Republican Derek Merrin in the November 3, 2026, general election for Ohio’s 9th congressional district. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 64.5% implied probability, reflecting Kaptur’s long incumbency since 1983, her narrow 2024 victory by roughly 2,400 votes, and sustained local support in the Toledo area. The Republican nominee secured the May 2026 primary after a mid-decade redistricting process that shifted the district’s partisan balance toward the GOP. Recent campaign activity by Kaptur and the absence of major new polling shifts or candidate developments have kept trader consensus tilted toward the Democratic outcome while leaving room for movement based on fall turnout patterns and any late-cycle national dynamics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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