Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly recent iterations like Opus 5 and Fable 5.1, holds an 78.5% market-implied probability of finishing second on Code Arena WebDev by end-September due to its sustained edge in agentic coding workflows and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 took the top leaderboard spot with 1,797 points, creating a narrow but clear first-place gap that leaves Anthropic’s models clustered just behind at 1,762. Broader SWE-bench Verified and related coding evaluations continue to show Anthropic models dominating or tying the frontier, reinforcing trader consensus around its reliability for web development tasks even as OpenAI’s newest release narrows the Arena-specific margin. No major new releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though any late-month model updates could still influence final standings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAnthropic 78.6%
OpenAI 17.9%
Alibaba 3.2%
Moonshot 2.5%
$68,573 Vol.
$68,573 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
79%
OpenAI
18%
Alibaba
3%
Moonshot
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Tencent
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Poolside
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 78.6%
OpenAI 17.9%
Alibaba 3.2%
Moonshot 2.5%
$68,573 Vol.
$68,573 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Anthropic
$13,590 Vol.
79%
OpenAI
$7,962 Vol.
18%
Alibaba
$16,923 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$12,098 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,291 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$1,731 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,850 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$1,562 Vol.
<1%
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$3,054 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$598 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,468 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,022 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$617 Vol.
<1%
Poolside
$1,035 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly recent iterations like Opus 5 and Fable 5.1, holds an 78.5% market-implied probability of finishing second on Code Arena WebDev by end-September due to its sustained edge in agentic coding workflows and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 took the top leaderboard spot with 1,797 points, creating a narrow but clear first-place gap that leaves Anthropic’s models clustered just behind at 1,762. Broader SWE-bench Verified and related coding evaluations continue to show Anthropic models dominating or tying the frontier, reinforcing trader consensus around its reliability for web development tasks even as OpenAI’s newest release narrows the Arena-specific margin. No major new releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though any late-month model updates could still influence final standings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
Volumen
$68,573Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly recent iterations like Opus 5 and Fable 5.1, holds an 78.5% market-implied probability of finishing second on Code Arena WebDev by end-September due to its sustained edge in agentic coding workflows and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 took the top leaderboard spot with 1,797 points, creating a narrow but clear first-place gap that leaves Anthropic’s models clustered just behind at 1,762. Broader SWE-bench Verified and related coding evaluations continue to show Anthropic models dominating or tying the frontier, reinforcing trader consensus around its reliability for web development tasks even as OpenAI’s newest release narrows the Arena-specific margin. No major new releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though any late-month model updates could still influence final standings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$68,573Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude family, particularly recent iterations like Opus 5 and Fable 5.1, holds an 78.5% market-implied probability of finishing second on Code Arena WebDev by end-September due to its sustained edge in agentic coding workflows and developer adoption. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 took the top leaderboard spot with 1,797 points, creating a narrow but clear first-place gap that leaves Anthropic’s models clustered just behind at 1,762. Broader SWE-bench Verified and related coding evaluations continue to show Anthropic models dominating or tying the frontier, reinforcing trader consensus around its reliability for web development tasks even as OpenAI’s newest release narrows the Arena-specific margin. No major new releases or benchmark shifts have emerged in the past week to alter this positioning, though any late-month model updates could still influence final standings.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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