Recent failure of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Pakistan, ending without agreement on key issues like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, zero uranium enrichment, missile program curbs, and proxy funding, has anchored trader consensus at just 16% for a permanent peace deal by April 22—the two-week ceasefire deadline brokered April 7. White House optimism for a second round this week, echoed by President Trump's comments that conflict is "close to over," boosts probabilities to 69% by June 30, reflecting de-escalation hopes amid fragile truce and Pakistani mediation. Upcoming negotiations and potential Hormuz blockade resumption loom as pivotal risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS x Iran permanentes Friedensabkommen bis...?
US x Iran permanentes Friedensabkommen bis...?
$8,395,584 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
22. April
16%
30. April
37%
31. Mai
62%
30. Juni
68%
$8,395,584 Vol.
22. April
$5,567,566 Vol.
16%
30. April
$1,553,980 Vol.
37%
31. Mai
$1,023,478 Vol.
62%
30. Juni
$261,291 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent failure of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Pakistan, ending without agreement on key issues like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, zero uranium enrichment, missile program curbs, and proxy funding, has anchored trader consensus at just 16% for a permanent peace deal by April 22—the two-week ceasefire deadline brokered April 7. White House optimism for a second round this week, echoed by President Trump's comments that conflict is "close to over," boosts probabilities to 69% by June 30, reflecting de-escalation hopes amid fragile truce and Pakistani mediation. Upcoming negotiations and potential Hormuz blockade resumption loom as pivotal risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volumen
$8,395,584Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent failure of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Pakistan, ending without agreement on key issues like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, zero uranium enrichment, missile program curbs, and proxy funding, has anchored trader consensus at just 16% for a permanent peace deal by April 22—the two-week ceasefire deadline brokered April 7. White House optimism for a second round this week, echoed by President Trump's comments that conflict is "close to over," boosts probabilities to 69% by June 30, reflecting de-escalation hopes amid fragile truce and Pakistani mediation. Upcoming negotiations and potential Hormuz blockade resumption loom as pivotal risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$8,395,584Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent failure of marathon 21-hour US-Iran talks in Pakistan, ending without agreement on key issues like reopening the Strait of Hormuz, zero uranium enrichment, missile program curbs, and proxy funding, has anchored trader consensus at just 16% for a permanent peace deal by April 22—the two-week ceasefire deadline brokered April 7. White House optimism for a second round this week, echoed by President Trump's comments that conflict is "close to over," boosts probabilities to 69% by June 30, reflecting de-escalation hopes amid fragile truce and Pakistani mediation. Upcoming negotiations and potential Hormuz blockade resumption loom as pivotal risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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