Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?
Gegen was wird der Iran bis zum 30. April militärisch vorgehen?
$463,744 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
Ruwais Raffinerie
25%
Habshan-Feld/Verarbeitungskomplex
22%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
22%
Ras Tanura
19%
Khurais-Feld
19%
Ölverarbeitungsanlage Abqaiq
14%
Al Zour Raffinerie
13%
Ghawar-Feld
11%
Safaniya-Feld
10%
Leviathan-Feld
8%
Burj Khalifa
5%
Dimona (Shimon-Peres-Negev-Kernforschungszentrum)
2%
$463,744 Vol.
Ruwais Raffinerie
$39,648 Vol.
25%
Habshan-Feld/Verarbeitungskomplex
$46,277 Vol.
22%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$35,851 Vol.
22%
Ras Tanura
$37,991 Vol.
19%
Khurais-Feld
$14,786 Vol.
19%
Ölverarbeitungsanlage Abqaiq
$38,125 Vol.
14%
Al Zour Raffinerie
$30,213 Vol.
13%
Ghawar-Feld
$12,229 Vol.
11%
Safaniya-Feld
$11,512 Vol.
10%
Leviathan-Feld
$7,662 Vol.
8%
Burj Khalifa
$7,981 Vol.
5%
Dimona (Shimon-Peres-Negev-Kernforschungszentrum)
$78,280 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volumen
$463,744Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$463,744Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8 following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, Iran has exploited the pause to reorganize its ballistic missile forces, per April 15 assessments, while issuing threats of direct retaliation against U.S. assets and Gulf infrastructure if the U.S. blockade of its ports and Strait of Hormuz persists. Proxies like Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthis continue coordinated drone and missile attacks on Israel, with Gulf states including UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait reporting interceptions as recently as early April. Pakistan-proposed U.S.-Iran talks loom, but traders weigh escalation risks versus de-escalation signals from President Trump's hints at winding down operations before April 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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