Despite extensive U.S. rhetoric labeling Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations and hints of targeted strikes or expanded operations under the current administration, bilateral security cooperation continues through intelligence sharing, extraditions, and Mexican-led enforcement without U.S. ground forces entering sovereign territory. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected any troop presence or invasion, citing non-negotiable sovereignty, while economic integration under USMCA and diplomatic channels remain intact. Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no invasion in 2026 because no mobilization, congressional authorization, or official war footing exists. Potential shifts could stem from sudden cartel-related incidents, failed cooperation, or unilateral U.S. strikes escalating into broader conflict, though these remain low-probability given institutional barriers and mutual interests.