**Trader consensus on "No" at 75% for a 5 kt or greater meteoroid airburst in 2026 is driven by the lack of any known near-Earth objects large enough to produce such an event on collision courses this year, per ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring.** No catalogued asteroids show meaningful impact probabilities for meter-to-tens-of-meters objects capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold (roughly 1–10 m stony bodies at typical velocities) through year-end. Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects that released well below 1 kt and were detected only hours in advance. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records and studies such as Brown et al. indicate ~5 kt events occur on roughly annual timescales globally, yet none have registered in 2026 so far. With three months remaining and no new high-risk detections, the market-implied odds align with base rates adjusted for elapsed time and comprehensive NEO surveys. New survey data or model updates could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
Sí
21% probabilidad
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
28 feb 2027
Sí
21% probabilidad
$314,157 Vol.
$314,157 Vol.
28 feb 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus on "No" at 75% for a 5 kt or greater meteoroid airburst in 2026 is driven by the lack of any known near-Earth objects large enough to produce such an event on collision courses this year, per ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring.**
No catalogued asteroids show meaningful impact probabilities for meter-to-tens-of-meters objects capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold (roughly 1–10 m stony bodies at typical velocities) through year-end. Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects that released well below 1 kt and were detected only hours in advance. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records and studies such as Brown et al. indicate ~5 kt events occur on roughly annual timescales globally, yet none have registered in 2026 so far. With three months remaining and no new high-risk detections, the market-implied odds align with base rates adjusted for elapsed time and comprehensive NEO surveys. New survey data or model updates could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$314,157Fecha de finalización
1 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Trader consensus on "No" at 75% for a 5 kt or greater meteoroid airburst in 2026 is driven by the lack of any known near-Earth objects large enough to produce such an event on collision courses this year, per ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring.**
No catalogued asteroids show meaningful impact probabilities for meter-to-tens-of-meters objects capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold (roughly 1–10 m stony bodies at typical velocities) through year-end. Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects that released well below 1 kt and were detected only hours in advance. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records and studies such as Brown et al. indicate ~5 kt events occur on roughly annual timescales globally, yet none have registered in 2026 so far. With three months remaining and no new high-risk detections, the market-implied odds align with base rates adjusted for elapsed time and comprehensive NEO surveys. New survey data or model updates could still shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$314,157Fecha de finalización
1 mar 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on "No" at 75% for a 5 kt or greater meteoroid airburst in 2026 is driven by the lack of any known near-Earth objects large enough to produce such an event on collision courses this year, per ongoing NASA CNEOS Sentry and ESA monitoring.** No catalogued asteroids show meaningful impact probabilities for meter-to-tens-of-meters objects capable of reaching the 5 kt threshold (roughly 1–10 m stony bodies at typical velocities) through year-end. Recent predicted impacts, including 2026 RW1 and 2026 JN4, involved sub-meter objects that released well below 1 kt and were detected only hours in advance. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records and studies such as Brown et al. indicate ~5 kt events occur on roughly annual timescales globally, yet none have registered in 2026 so far. With three months remaining and no new high-risk detections, the market-implied odds align with base rates adjusted for elapsed time and comprehensive NEO surveys. New survey data or model updates could still shift probabilities before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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