Bill Gates faces no active federal or state criminal investigation likely to produce charges before the June 30 resolution date. Congressional testimony before the House Oversight Committee on June 10 centered on his past Epstein contacts and produced no indictments or referrals for prosecution. Criminal charging decisions require prosecutorial review, grand-jury proceedings, and due-process steps that cannot realistically conclude in the remaining window. Traders therefore assign a 99.4 percent probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any verified legal developments or timelines that would support an imminent indictment. The only conceivable shifts would involve an unforeseen enforcement action or sealed filing made public at the last moment, both of which lack supporting evidence in current records.