Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump's 15-point margin there in 2024. Obernolte's 60 percent general-election victory in 2024, combined with substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantages, has anchored trader consensus around a Republican hold at over 93 percent. A late national Democratic surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout shifts in the Inland Empire could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-23 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-23 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$60,350 Vol.
$60,350 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$60,350 Vol.
$60,350 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$28,188 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$32,161 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump's 15-point margin there in 2024. Obernolte's 60 percent general-election victory in 2024, combined with substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantages, has anchored trader consensus around a Republican hold at over 93 percent. A late national Democratic surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout shifts in the Inland Empire could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$60,350Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump's 15-point margin there in 2024. Obernolte's 60 percent general-election victory in 2024, combined with substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantages, has anchored trader consensus around a Republican hold at over 93 percent. A late national Democratic surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout shifts in the Inland Empire could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$60,350Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured the top spot in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote, advancing against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the district Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump's 15-point margin there in 2024. Obernolte's 60 percent general-election victory in 2024, combined with substantial fundraising and cash-on-hand advantages, has anchored trader consensus around a Republican hold at over 93 percent. A late national Democratic surge, major scandal involving the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout shifts in the Inland Empire could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and current structural factors make such outcomes improbable.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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