California's 51st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and lies within the San Diego metropolitan area, producing consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Sara Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57.7 percent, while Republican Ricardo Cabrera reached the general election ballot at 37 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because the district's voter composition, fundraising patterns, and historical margins limit Republican viability absent a major scandal or national partisan realignment. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only under unusually low Democratic turnout or an unforeseen late development that alters the competitive baseline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-51 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-51 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$31,852 Vol.
$31,852 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
4%
$31,852 Vol.
$31,852 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$17,598 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,253 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 51st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and lies within the San Diego metropolitan area, producing consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Sara Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57.7 percent, while Republican Ricardo Cabrera reached the general election ballot at 37 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because the district's voter composition, fundraising patterns, and historical margins limit Republican viability absent a major scandal or national partisan realignment. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only under unusually low Democratic turnout or an unforeseen late development that alters the competitive baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$31,852Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 51st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and lies within the San Diego metropolitan area, producing consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Sara Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57.7 percent, while Republican Ricardo Cabrera reached the general election ballot at 37 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because the district's voter composition, fundraising patterns, and historical margins limit Republican viability absent a major scandal or national partisan realignment. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only under unusually low Democratic turnout or an unforeseen late development that alters the competitive baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-51 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$31,852Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 51st congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+13 and lies within the San Diego metropolitan area, producing consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles. Incumbent Representative Sara Jacobs advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57.7 percent, while Republican Ricardo Cabrera reached the general election ballot at 37 percent. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 94.5 percent implied probability because the district's voter composition, fundraising patterns, and historical margins limit Republican viability absent a major scandal or national partisan realignment. The November 3 general election outcome could shift only under unusually low Democratic turnout or an unforeseen late development that alters the competitive baseline.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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