Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, first elected in 2009, seeks another term in Connecticut’s 4th district, which encompasses southwestern Fairfield County areas such as Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. The district has consistently supported Democratic candidates, with Himes securing 61 percent in 2024. Limited Republican primary activity on August 11 features low-profile contenders Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi, neither of whom has mounted a competitive general-election challenge. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat’s structural advantages, modest GOP fundraising, and absence of recent polling shifts or national tailwinds that might alter the outcome. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Republican midterm surge remain the primary theoretical risks to the current consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$46,127 Vol.
$46,127 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
96%
Partido Republicano
5%
$46,127 Vol.
$46,127 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$21,473 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$24,654 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, first elected in 2009, seeks another term in Connecticut’s 4th district, which encompasses southwestern Fairfield County areas such as Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. The district has consistently supported Democratic candidates, with Himes securing 61 percent in 2024. Limited Republican primary activity on August 11 features low-profile contenders Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi, neither of whom has mounted a competitive general-election challenge. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat’s structural advantages, modest GOP fundraising, and absence of recent polling shifts or national tailwinds that might alter the outcome. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Republican midterm surge remain the primary theoretical risks to the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$46,127Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, first elected in 2009, seeks another term in Connecticut’s 4th district, which encompasses southwestern Fairfield County areas such as Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. The district has consistently supported Democratic candidates, with Himes securing 61 percent in 2024. Limited Republican primary activity on August 11 features low-profile contenders Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi, neither of whom has mounted a competitive general-election challenge. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat’s structural advantages, modest GOP fundraising, and absence of recent polling shifts or national tailwinds that might alter the outcome. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Republican midterm surge remain the primary theoretical risks to the current consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$46,127Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Himes, first elected in 2009, seeks another term in Connecticut’s 4th district, which encompasses southwestern Fairfield County areas such as Bridgeport, Stamford, and Greenwich. The district has consistently supported Democratic candidates, with Himes securing 61 percent in 2024. Limited Republican primary activity on August 11 features low-profile contenders Michael Goldstein and Daniel Miressi, neither of whom has mounted a competitive general-election challenge. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 95.5 percent implied probability, reflecting the seat’s structural advantages, modest GOP fundraising, and absence of recent polling shifts or national tailwinds that might alter the outcome. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal or an unusually strong Republican midterm surge remain the primary theoretical risks to the current consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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