Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and minor independent candidates in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts’ 4th Congressional District carries a D+11 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Auchincloss’s strong fundraising and established constituent base across its Boston suburbs and South Coast communities. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in this environment. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event for the incumbent could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
MA-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$47,396 Vol.
$47,396 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
1%
$47,396 Vol.
$47,396 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Jake Auchincloss (D)
$23,636 Vol.
97%
Tom Stalcup (R)
$23,760 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and minor independent candidates in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts’ 4th Congressional District carries a D+11 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Auchincloss’s strong fundraising and established constituent base across its Boston suburbs and South Coast communities. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in this environment. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event for the incumbent could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$47,396Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and minor independent candidates in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts’ 4th Congressional District carries a D+11 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Auchincloss’s strong fundraising and established constituent base across its Boston suburbs and South Coast communities. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in this environment. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event for the incumbent could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$47,396Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Jake Auchincloss secured the Democratic nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 72 percent of the vote against challenger Jason Poulos, positioning the incumbent to face Republican Thomas Stalcup and minor independent candidates in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts’ 4th Congressional District carries a D+11 partisan voter index and has delivered consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent cycles, reinforced by Auchincloss’s strong fundraising and established constituent base across its Boston suburbs and South Coast communities. Forecasters rate the race solid or safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in this environment. Late developments such as a significant scandal or health event for the incumbent could theoretically alter the outcome, though no such factors have emerged.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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