US durable goods orders data exhibit pronounced month-to-month volatility driven by lumpy transportation equipment bookings, particularly nondefense aircraft, which propelled the April 2026 print to a 7.9% MoM surge—well above consensus—while ex-transportation orders rose a steadier 1.1%. This pattern creates substantial uncertainty for the May release, scheduled for June 25, as markets price in a wide distribution of outcomes with the highest implied probabilities clustered in negative territory. Broader manufacturing indicators, capital spending trends, and revisions to prior months further contribute to the fragmented trader consensus, underscoring how single large orders can materially shift the headline figure from one period to the next.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado<-4% 33.1%
-4%– -2% 23%
-2%– 0% 10.1%
0%–2% 10%
$43,855 Vol.
$43,855 Vol.
25 jun 2026
<-4%
33%
-4%– -2%
23%
-2%– 0%
10%
0%–2%
10%
2%–4%
10%
4%–6%
6%
6%-8%
1%
8%+
4%
<-4% 33.1%
-4%– -2% 23%
-2%– 0% 10.1%
0%–2% 10%
$43,855 Vol.
$43,855 Vol.
25 jun 2026
<-4%
$3,186 Vol.
33%
-4%– -2%
$4,271 Vol.
23%
-2%– 0%
$1,619 Vol.
10%
0%–2%
$7,243 Vol.
10%
2%–4%
$14,058 Vol.
10%
4%–6%
$8,188 Vol.
6%
6%-8%
$3,046 Vol.
1%
8%+
$2,244 Vol.
4%
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.US durable goods orders data exhibit pronounced month-to-month volatility driven by lumpy transportation equipment bookings, particularly nondefense aircraft, which propelled the April 2026 print to a 7.9% MoM surge—well above consensus—while ex-transportation orders rose a steadier 1.1%. This pattern creates substantial uncertainty for the May release, scheduled for June 25, as markets price in a wide distribution of outcomes with the highest implied probabilities clustered in negative territory. Broader manufacturing indicators, capital spending trends, and revisions to prior months further contribute to the fragmented trader consensus, underscoring how single large orders can materially shift the headline figure from one period to the next.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado abierto: Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$43,855Fecha de finalización
25 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.US durable goods orders data exhibit pronounced month-to-month volatility driven by lumpy transportation equipment bookings, particularly nondefense aircraft, which propelled the April 2026 print to a 7.9% MoM surge—well above consensus—while ex-transportation orders rose a steadier 1.1%. This pattern creates substantial uncertainty for the May release, scheduled for June 25, as markets price in a wide distribution of outcomes with the highest implied probabilities clustered in negative territory. Broader manufacturing indicators, capital spending trends, and revisions to prior months further contribute to the fragmented trader consensus, underscoring how single large orders can materially shift the headline figure from one period to the next.
This is a market about the seasonally adjusted month-over-month percent change in new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported by the U.S. Census Bureau.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the month-over-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted new orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2026, as reported in the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders released for May 2026 (https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html), currently scheduled to be released on June 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Advance Report on Durable Goods, which reports the month-over-month percent change in new orders to one decimal point (e.g., 1.5%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note that this market resolves on the headline new orders for manufactured durable goods figure, not the ex-transportation or ex-defense figures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the U.S. Census Bureau does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Advance Report on Durable Goods (https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$43,855Fecha de finalización
25 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 1, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...US durable goods orders data exhibit pronounced month-to-month volatility driven by lumpy transportation equipment bookings, particularly nondefense aircraft, which propelled the April 2026 print to a 7.9% MoM surge—well above consensus—while ex-transportation orders rose a steadier 1.1%. This pattern creates substantial uncertainty for the May release, scheduled for June 25, as markets price in a wide distribution of outcomes with the highest implied probabilities clustered in negative territory. Broader manufacturing indicators, capital spending trends, and revisions to prior months further contribute to the fragmented trader consensus, underscoring how single large orders can materially shift the headline figure from one period to the next.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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