Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-299 tweets for Elon Musk's X posts from April 14-21, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 17.5% implied probability, reflecting a cautious pace after 74 posts logged in the first 29% of the period per xTracker data. This positioning stems from recent daily variability—lows like 22 on April 13-14 contrasting highs of 78 earlier—yielding an average of 35-45 posts amid ongoing South Africa Starlink disputes and U.S. immigration debates fueling steady engagement. Key swing factors include potential viral spikes from political feuds or Tesla/SpaceX updates, versus quieter days if focus shifts offline; with five days left, a single 60+ post day could pivot odds toward 300+, while subdued activity favors 240-259 at 14.5%. Markets acknowledge Elon's unpredictable posting rhythm, blending cultural provocateur bursts with routine replies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado260-279 18%
280-299 18%
240-259 15%
300-319 14%
$4,047,070 Vol.
$4,047,070 Vol.
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
1%
200-219
4%
220-239
10%
240-259
15%
260-279
18%
280-299
18%
300-319
14%
320-339
9%
340-359
5%
360-379
2%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
260-279 18%
280-299 18%
240-259 15%
300-319 14%
$4,047,070 Vol.
$4,047,070 Vol.
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
1%
200-219
4%
220-239
10%
240-259
15%
260-279
18%
280-299
18%
300-319
14%
320-339
9%
340-359
5%
360-379
2%
380-399
1%
400-419
1%
420-439
1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Apr 11, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters tightly around 260-299 tweets for Elon Musk's X posts from April 14-21, with 260-279 and 280-299 each at 17.5% implied probability, reflecting a cautious pace after 74 posts logged in the first 29% of the period per xTracker data. This positioning stems from recent daily variability—lows like 22 on April 13-14 contrasting highs of 78 earlier—yielding an average of 35-45 posts amid ongoing South Africa Starlink disputes and U.S. immigration debates fueling steady engagement. Key swing factors include potential viral spikes from political feuds or Tesla/SpaceX updates, versus quieter days if focus shifts offline; with five days left, a single 60+ post day could pivot odds toward 300+, while subdued activity favors 240-259 at 14.5%. Markets acknowledge Elon's unpredictable posting rhythm, blending cultural provocateur bursts with routine replies.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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