Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie grossing under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with an implied 91.5% probability, driven by its confirmed second-weekend drop to $69 million—a 47% decline from the $131.7 million three-day opening amid Easter family turnout. This trajectory echoes the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's legs, where third-frame declines hit 46%, compounded by steady competition from Project Hail Mary surpassing $500 million globally and waning post-holiday momentum. Strong critical reception and A-level word-of-mouth provide some multiplier potential, but absent viral repeat viewings or light counterprogramming, upside remains slim; tracking updates Thursday could signal any upset shift toward $44-48 million.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3er fin de semana de taquilla
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3er fin de semana de taquilla
<44m 92%
44-48 millones 6.8%
>52 millones 2.1%
48-52 millones 1.6%
NUEVO
$14,327 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,327 Vol.
20 abr 2026
<44m
92%
44-48 millones
7%
48-52 millones
2%
>52 millones
2%
<44m 92%
44-48 millones 6.8%
>52 millones 2.1%
48-52 millones 1.6%
NUEVO
$14,327 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,327 Vol.
20 abr 2026
<44m
$2,650 Vol.
92%
44-48 millones
$2,605 Vol.
7%
48-52 millones
$4,549 Vol.
2%
>52 millones
$4,522 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie grossing under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with an implied 91.5% probability, driven by its confirmed second-weekend drop to $69 million—a 47% decline from the $131.7 million three-day opening amid Easter family turnout. This trajectory echoes the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's legs, where third-frame declines hit 46%, compounded by steady competition from Project Hail Mary surpassing $500 million globally and waning post-holiday momentum. Strong critical reception and A-level word-of-mouth provide some multiplier potential, but absent viral repeat viewings or light counterprogramming, upside remains slim; tracking updates Thursday could signal any upset shift toward $44-48 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volumen
$14,327Fecha de finalización
20 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie grossing under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with an implied 91.5% probability, driven by its confirmed second-weekend drop to $69 million—a 47% decline from the $131.7 million three-day opening amid Easter family turnout. This trajectory echoes the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's legs, where third-frame declines hit 46%, compounded by steady competition from Project Hail Mary surpassing $500 million globally and waning post-holiday momentum. Strong critical reception and A-level word-of-mouth provide some multiplier potential, but absent viral repeat viewings or light counterprogramming, upside remains slim; tracking updates Thursday could signal any upset shift toward $44-48 million.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (April 17 - April 19) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$14,327Fecha de finalización
20 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors The Super Mario Galaxy Movie grossing under $44 million in its third domestic weekend, with an implied 91.5% probability, driven by its confirmed second-weekend drop to $69 million—a 47% decline from the $131.7 million three-day opening amid Easter family turnout. This trajectory echoes the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's legs, where third-frame declines hit 46%, compounded by steady competition from Project Hail Mary surpassing $500 million globally and waning post-holiday momentum. Strong critical reception and A-level word-of-mouth provide some multiplier potential, but absent viral repeat viewings or light counterprogramming, upside remains slim; tracking updates Thursday could signal any upset shift toward $44-48 million.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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