Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and its data-dependent stance amid May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year and stable unemployment near 4.3%. Recent June hold and resilient labor conditions have reinforced expectations that officials will await clearer disinflation signals before adjusting policy, consistent with futures pricing a gradual rate path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June jobs report and CPI release, which could shift odds if they show accelerated cooling or renewed price pressures; a sharp downside surprise in employment or inflation data remains the primary scenario that could realistically reopen debate on a 25-basis-point move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.0%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$9,767,454 Vol.
$9,767,454 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
3%
Sin cambio
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 4.0%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 2.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$9,767,454 Vol.
$9,767,454 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,417,930 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$1,068,388 Vol.
3%
Sin cambio
$1,623,255 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$4,100,375 Vol.
4%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,558,219 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and its data-dependent stance amid May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year and stable unemployment near 4.3%. Recent June hold and resilient labor conditions have reinforced expectations that officials will await clearer disinflation signals before adjusting policy, consistent with futures pricing a gradual rate path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June jobs report and CPI release, which could shift odds if they show accelerated cooling or renewed price pressures; a sharp downside surprise in employment or inflation data remains the primary scenario that could realistically reopen debate on a 25-basis-point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$9,767,454Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and its data-dependent stance amid May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year and stable unemployment near 4.3%. Recent June hold and resilient labor conditions have reinforced expectations that officials will await clearer disinflation signals before adjusting policy, consistent with futures pricing a gradual rate path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June jobs report and CPI release, which could shift odds if they show accelerated cooling or renewed price pressures; a sharp downside surprise in employment or inflation data remains the primary scenario that could realistically reopen debate on a 25-basis-point move.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$9,767,454Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range and its data-dependent stance amid May 2026 CPI at 4.2% year-over-year and stable unemployment near 4.3%. Recent June hold and resilient labor conditions have reinforced expectations that officials will await clearer disinflation signals before adjusting policy, consistent with futures pricing a gradual rate path. Key upcoming catalysts include the June jobs report and CPI release, which could shift odds if they show accelerated cooling or renewed price pressures; a sharp downside surprise in employment or inflation data remains the primary scenario that could realistically reopen debate on a 25-basis-point move.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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