Trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting stands at 92.5%, driven by recent inflation data hovering near target levels and a labor market that remains resilient without clear signs of overheating. This positioning reflects the Fed’s communicated preference for maintaining the current policy stance until more conclusive evidence emerges on the 2% inflation goal, consistent with forward guidance and recent dot-plot projections. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term volatility. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this view include a hotter June CPI print exceeding expectations or a sharp deterioration in employment indicators ahead of the meeting, both of which would alter rate-path assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 6.0%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,944,225 Vol.
$8,944,225 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
2%
Sin cambio
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
<1%
Sin cambio 93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos 6.0%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos 1.6%
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos <1%
$8,944,225 Vol.
$8,944,225 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Disminución de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,240,159 Vol.
1%
Reducción de 25 puntos básicos
$977,844 Vol.
2%
Sin cambio
$1,296,744 Vol.
93%
Aumento de 25 puntos básicos
$3,958,804 Vol.
6%
Aumento de más de 50 puntos básicos
$1,470,716 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting stands at 92.5%, driven by recent inflation data hovering near target levels and a labor market that remains resilient without clear signs of overheating. This positioning reflects the Fed’s communicated preference for maintaining the current policy stance until more conclusive evidence emerges on the 2% inflation goal, consistent with forward guidance and recent dot-plot projections. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term volatility. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this view include a hotter June CPI print exceeding expectations or a sharp deterioration in employment indicators ahead of the meeting, both of which would alter rate-path assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$8,944,225Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting stands at 92.5%, driven by recent inflation data hovering near target levels and a labor market that remains resilient without clear signs of overheating. This positioning reflects the Fed’s communicated preference for maintaining the current policy stance until more conclusive evidence emerges on the 2% inflation goal, consistent with forward guidance and recent dot-plot projections. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term volatility. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this view include a hotter June CPI print exceeding expectations or a sharp deterioration in employment indicators ahead of the meeting, both of which would alter rate-path assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$8,944,225Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for no change in the federal funds rate at the July FOMC meeting stands at 92.5%, driven by recent inflation data hovering near target levels and a labor market that remains resilient without clear signs of overheating. This positioning reflects the Fed’s communicated preference for maintaining the current policy stance until more conclusive evidence emerges on the 2% inflation goal, consistent with forward guidance and recent dot-plot projections. Market-implied odds price in limited near-term volatility. Scenarios that could realistically challenge this view include a hotter June CPI print exceeding expectations or a sharp deterioration in employment indicators ahead of the meeting, both of which would alter rate-path assessments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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